Playing Safer??

[petvan]

I'm in the Stars 10+1 Rebuy last night and find myself with t5100, at a full table where most stacks have me well covered. Av stack is near 10k.

I pick up KK and am third to act with blinds at 200/400. Guy on my right opens to 1k and has me covered, but only by a couple chips. I decide to isolate here and likely get all with him with hopefully an edge. He ends up call with Q10s and hits his runner runner flush.

Now, before you flame me for a bad beat, here is my question.

Clearly, if I call, and see no other action at the table, I'm likely going to take this down if he checks the flop. If he makes a standard continuation bet on the flop, he may also be able to get away from it. In other words, my aggression preflop may have caused my demise.

When I think about this hand, I start to wonder if not putting your stack at risk, even with likely a strong edge, is a better strategy than trying for the double all the time. If you push 3 3:1's, likely your going to bust on one of them ;-)

Am I over analyzing this bad beat? Was my push not ideal?

Thanks

P

I see no problem with your push... with an m of about 4 I see no other play with kk.... consider yourself lucky see a premium while in the red zone but unlucky to lose to qt.

oops, didn't notice blinds were 200/400.... so you're m is not 4 but i still like the push

[McMelchior]

Poker is a gambling game where the object is to make bets where you have the edge.

Your pocket kings were better than 4:1 against QT.

If you seriously doubt getting you chips in as a 4+ : 1 favorite you shouldn't spend any money on the buy-in.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[petvan]

Hehe. Thanks. Clearly, I'd be more than freaking thrilled to ram my chips into every 4:1 situation, regardless of pot odds.

However, my point wasn't about getting my chips in as much as the subtleties of not putting your entire stack at risk preflop.

I wondered if some of the better players here might take a flop first given EP's original raise will cleanse most of the Ax junk already. Also, EP's call was very fishy, and I may have minimized my EV with the push.

Prolly nothing here to talk about, but I just had this feeling that maybe there was a safer way here. I am working hard on accumulation through small pot wins vs tight play and depending upon infrequent doubles for stack building in order to minimize full stack risk and was thinking I could do that here and possibly survive this (and other such situations where EP takes a speculative flop)

P

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
If you push 3 3:1's, likely your going to bust on one of them ;-)

[/ QUOTE ]

i know this is counter intuitive, but the best player in the world is 'likely to bust outside the money in every tournament he plays'. if you consistantly got your money in as a 3:1, you would be that player.

[petvan]

So outside of the hand EP happened to have, which is considerably lower than the range I put him on, do you think my push is the correct, or at least predominantly correct play given the info I provided? (reads and the rest of the stack sizes obviously relevant, but not provided)

P

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
So outside of the hand EP happened to have, which is considerably lower than the range I put him on, do you think my push is the correct, or at least predominantly correct play given the info I provided? (reads and the rest of the stack sizes obviously relevant, but not provided)

P

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, push is fine if you have reason to believe that he's calling w/ QT

Pushing is the conservative way to play K's. You are taking a much bigger risk letting Villain see the flop then you are shutting him out pre-flop. Suppose you knew for sure he had QTs, and that pre-flop he'll fold to your push 70% of the time (for good players it would be 99%, but clearly, this guy is a fish). When he does call pre-flop, he's a 4:1 dog.

Now suppose you know he'll fold the flop unless he makes a pair, a flush draw, or a straight draw, and will call your all-in otherwise. He will get one of those hands more than 30% of the time, so you increase the likelihood that he'll call you by showing him the flop. However, once he makes one of those hands, he is only a 2:1 or 3:1 dog rather than 4:1, as he was pre-flop. So you are making a higher risk, higher reward play by showing him the flop: it's more likely you get a favorable call, but also more likely that he sucks out when he does call.

[fnurt]

Your question is kind of silly. You either accumulate these chips now as a 3:1 favorite, or you're stuck trying to accumulate them later as a considerably lesser favorite. There is no risk-free way to accumulate chips.

You only get so many big hands during a tournament and you need to make the most of them. Every time you go all-in, you risk a bad beat, but it's still the safest way to accumulate chips in a hurry.