#1
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Hand Help
Cross-posted since I realized that this is the proper forum for my questions.
I need a little help with this hand. I am sure I miss played it but I need to know if I am realizing the error because I am being result orientated or if my math, the chip stacks and the timing supports my later analyzes of the hand. Multi-table tournament with 300 players left the first payout is 100 players away. Blinds are 100-200 Chip leader (approximated) = 20,000 tournament Chip leader table Hero with 12,540 Avg. stack tournament= 3,500 Here is the hand: Villain has 11,800 and is in MP it is folded to him and he bets 400. Hero is button with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] folded to hero, Hero bets 1,000. Blinds fold Villain calls. It is heads up. Flop is T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Villain checks, Hero bets 1,000 villain calls. Turn is K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Villain goes all-in hero calls. River is 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Villain wins hand with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Flush So after losing the tournament I analyzed this hand and I think I should have folded. Here is why: I was 99.9% sure Villain had the Ace I had been playing with him for about an hour and there was no way in my mind he would bluff or semi-bluff there. So if I call I win 1/2 the pot or $2,150 3 out of 4 times but if he is on a flush draw and hits I lose 11,800 1 out of 4 times. Now I don't know how to calculate the probability that he is on a flush draw so I need help there. Second reason to fold is that if I fold I still have 10,000 chips and a chance to win the tournament or at least finish in the money. If I call and win I have 12,700 but if I call and lose I can get crippled needing to get very lucky to come back. Comments please. Should I have foleded? Why? Why not? Thanks |
#2
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Re: Hand Help
It's more like 1 out of 5 times for the flush hitting on the river. But I still think this is a call, but it's an interesting hand. I can't fold the nuts.
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#3
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Re: Hand Help
think you played perfect. i may have even bet a little less on flop for fear of chasing him out. you got all your chips in with the best hand and he was on a draw at the turn. villain felt he had at least 12 outs. perfect play, bad outcome.
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#4
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Re: Hand Help
Just think you got unlucky. If you fold the nuts here what hand will you play against the big stacks?
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