Would you hedge USC, if you were up on them from pre-season?

llabb · #1 10-25-2005, 08:16 PM

Pre-season, I liked USC a lot, even at the odds that were being offered. I took SC to win the championship at +175.

Currently, I can lock in "Will USC win the Rose Bowl?" NO at +152, for guaranteed profit either way. Alternatively, Texas is at +222, assuming they win out (although there's some risk hedging this way).

If it were you, would you hedge with one of these or other options, or would you just ride it out on SC?

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I also liked Reggie Bush a lot pre-season. I put some money on any USC player winning the Heisman at +155, and some money on Reggie Bush specifically winning at +460. Looking pretty good now, with current odds on Bush all the way down to -200.

Should I hedge with any of the following options, or just ride it out on Bush?

"Will Reggie Bush win the Heisman Trophy?" NO +188
"Will a USC player win the Heisman Trophy?" NO +407

Vince Young · #2 10-25-2005, 09:56 PM

I wouldn't hedge either of them, but if I did, I'd go with Texas +222 and a USC player not to win the Heisman +407.

Black Aces 518 · #3 10-26-2005, 01:09 PM

I would definitely go with Texas +222 as their hedge. Texas' 4 games left are @ Oklahoma St, Kansas, @ Baylor, @ Texas A&M. Then a Big XII title game, with the two top contenders already suffering blowout losses to TX. I think the chances of TX not going unbeaten at this point are miniscule. Also, I feel that their chances or getting jumped are also tiny.

It depends on what you think the chances are of USC losing before the RB. IMO, not enough to pass up +222 for +152.

Easy E · #4 10-26-2005, 01:45 PM

No. Unless the counter bets have value in and of themselves, don't lock out your potential profit.

whipsaw · #5 10-26-2005, 02:21 PM

You assume that Texas gets into the Rose Bowl if they win out, which isn't necessarily a lock. If USC, UT, and VaTech all win out, I think UT is the one on the outside looking in due to late season SOS.

#6 10-26-2005, 02:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You assume that Texas gets into the Rose Bowl if they win out, which isn't necessarily a lock. If USC, UT, and VaTech all win out, I think UT is the one on the outside looking in due to late season SOS.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, VA Tech will definitely move past TX if both are undefeated.

Black Aces 518 · #7 10-26-2005, 02:41 PM

I disagree, whip. I just don't think Va Tech can make up the ground. There is real feeling that Texas is the best team in the country. They are currently #1 in the BCS, and I don't see them losing that much ground over the last 5 games. I think Va Tech has to count on USC losing.

whipsaw · #8 10-26-2005, 02:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There is real feeling that Texas is the best team in the country.

[/ QUOTE ]

Says who? Both polls with actual people voting have Texas #2 by a substantial margin. Computers have no feelings, and will just compute the raw numbers. If VaTech beats Miami, BC, and whoever in the ACC Champ game, they will hurdle Texas, who plays Division II teams from here on out. SOS counts for a lot, more than I think you're willing to accept.

I now notice you're from Austin... I completely understand your position now.

legend42 · #9 10-26-2005, 03:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yep, VA Tech will definitely move past TX if both are undefeated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Has this been documented at all? It seems likely they would pass Texas (and probably USC) in the computer rankings should they win out, but wouldn't they also have to pass Texas in at least one of the polls?

Not saying it won't happen, but everything I've seen has Texas and USC on a collision course (assuming they both stay undefeated, of course).

King Yao · #10 10-26-2005, 03:32 PM

There are three reasons to make a bet that hedges a previous bet:

1. The second bet - the hedge - has positive expectancy itself.

2. Your risk is so large, that you'd get sick to your stomache (or your wallet) if you lose.

3. The hedge itself allows you to play other related plays (that have positive EV) that you found too risky to play combined with your current position. But the combination of this new positive EV play and the hedge, must have positive EV.

In your case, it seems the only relevant issue is #1 - does the hedge have positive EV. So, would you bet against USC now if you didnt' have the USC bet to begin with?. I'll leave that answer to you and other posters.