hypothetical weak draw

BobboFitos · #1 09-08-2005, 11:04 AM

interesting situation i was thinking about. 1-2 NL, 200$ stacks. You are viewed as overly loose and overly aggressive, you view the table as overly tight and overly weak.

6max, CO open limps, you overlimp with 67 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] . SB completes and BB checks.

Flop is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], pot has 8$ minus rake.

Q1: SB leads out. What is the maximum you'd be willing to call?
Q2: If you knew BB or CO would call, how much would you know be willing to call?
Q3: If SB leads out, is raising the better play? If so, what bet amounts? (Would make raising > calling or folding, and if you raise, to how much % pot)
Q4: If checked to you, do you take the free card?

Yeah, so I think about weird things when Im driving to and from class, but chew on this, I'll give my thoughts in a little bit. And if no one cares, then... Fine, I wont, and the thread will die, but I think I have a point to make about weak draws.

xorbie · #2 09-08-2005, 11:43 AM

I really like calling in these types of situations. If a 5 peels off, any 6 is playing a huge pot and any A is playing a decent pot. Also a call on this board is pretty scary against an 88 type hand if that's what SB is leading out with (could just as easily be 45 or something though, so a 7 could be a legitimate out).

You also have a backdoor flush draw, so I'm definitely calling if SB leads and BB or CO calls.

I'll bet this flop if checked to from time to time, but not always.

TheWorstPlayer · #3 09-08-2005, 11:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
interesting situation i was thinking about. 1-2 NL, 200$ stacks. You are viewed as overly loose and overly aggressive, you view the table as overly tight and overly weak.

6max, CO open limps, you overlimp with 67 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] . SB completes and BB checks.

Flop is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], pot has 8$ minus rake.

Q1: SB leads out. What is the maximum you'd be willing to call?

[/ QUOTE ]
I would definitely be willing to call up to half pot since it indicates weakness and I might be able to steal on the turn. If it is full pot, then I think the combination of reduced stealing likelihood, reduced chance that a 6 or 7 is good, and the possibility of a raise behind me makes it too expensive.

[ QUOTE ]
Q2: If you knew BB or CO would call, how much would you know be willing to call?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's still a weak draw, and now you know that 6 and 7 are very unlikely to be good. Particularly 6 is no good for sure. So I still don't think I can call more than half pot for implied odds especially once you take into account the fact that you're not closing the action. Put you on the BN and have them call in front of you and you can call more obviously.

[ QUOTE ]
Q3: If SB leads out, is raising the better play? If so, what bet amounts? (Would make raising > calling or folding, and if you raise, to how much % pot)

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure about raising not closing the action. I think this is a very interesting point. Of course you'd like to shut out marginal hand behind you and you'd also like to increase fold equity on the turn/gain a free card/build a pot in case you hit. But perhaps it is too big of an investment not closing the action, with such a weak draw. That is my general feeling, but I'm not positive about it.

[ QUOTE ]
Q4: If checked to you, do you take the free card?

[/ QUOTE ]
Definitely. No one folds at NL200 even if you think they are 'too tight'.

Edit: Apparently my poor poker playing has transfered over to reading comprehension as well. Since we're on the BN, I'm calling in most spots. I might raise if I'm heads up. Particularly against a weak bet.

djoyce003 · #4 09-08-2005, 12:02 PM

I'll call half-potish type bets here because if a 5 peels I might stack someone with a naked 6, plus I might pick up a flush draw on the turn. You'd be getting nice implied odds on a call i'd think.

BobboFitos · #5 09-08-2005, 07:31 PM

In an effort to generate some responses, I'll reply. If no one is interested I guess I'll just let this die.

[ QUOTE ]
interesting situation i was thinking about. 1-2 NL, 200$ stacks. You are viewed as overly loose and overly aggressive, you view the table as overly tight and overly weak.

6max, CO open limps, you overlimp with 67 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] . SB completes and BB checks.

Flop is 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], pot has 8$ minus rake.

Q1: SB leads out. What is the maximum you'd be willing to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really feel with this "weak" of a draw, given depth of stacks relative to the pot and subsequent pot bet, you can call a full pot. (Lots of 'pot' in that statement) A 6 or 7 probably isn't an out, (although a 7 I'd feel comfortable showing down, if SB is leading out 4 way w/ top pair or 5x, very possible) but backdoor flush could allow you to see the river. Most importantly, though, if you catch SB w. the nuts or really 6x (64,63,62) you WILL win a 400$ pot. Beauty of nuts on a 4straight board.
[ QUOTE ]

Q2: If you knew BB or CO would call, how much would you know be willing to call?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this changes the problem. Now instead of 4 nut outs + bdoor + maybe overcards, overcards still could be there but the pot will be too big if someone bets the turn to hope to show it down. However, a flat call increases the chance 6x (or Ax, which will pay off a bit!) isin there. So I'd probably call x2pot. (16, cold call, makes a 40dollar pot w/ 16 to call) I dont feel like doing math because I'm burnt out by classes and it's almost dinner, but that is a profitable call. I say this only because it's eye opening.
[ QUOTE ]

Q3: If SB leads out, is raising the better play? If so, what bet amounts? (Would make raising > calling or folding, and if you raise, to how much % pot)

[/ QUOTE ]

I think no. This isn't a great semibluffing board, and really the beauty of your hand is you have a disguised uber nut type hand. There isn't alot of fold equity, and if called, realistically you're looking at only the gutshot or fold equity. If you do raise, though, I think half pot is enough to buy a river and recieve full fold equity... (What folds to full pot that calls half?)

[ QUOTE ]

Q4: If checked to you, do you take the free card?

[/ QUOTE ] I would stab here, but thats because I stab at too many flops. Checking is fine, just wondering if anyone felt strongly one way or another.

TheWorstPlayer · #6 09-09-2005, 12:37 PM

You've got to explain your profitability analysis a bit more. Obviously if your only outs are the 4 5s, then you need to be getting 11:1 to make it a call. But every call in front of you has some reasonably high probability of BEING a 5, so if you get a call or two in front of you, you can be almost guaranteed that one of them at least is a 5, giving you only 3 outs and necesitating 15:1 odds. I just don't see how calling 2xPot here can be a good idea.