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#21
11-03-2005, 04:16 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
And as a follow up to my own post. I would not quit. I would keep going until one of us is broke, since I am getting really good odds each time. Isnt this the same thing as saying "if someone gave you the option to call heads are tails and if you win the coin toss you get 8 dollars if you lose you pay 1 dollar...how many times would you make this bet.
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#22
11-03-2005, 04:21 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
yeah, but, we dont have a lot of money, so, we quit when we're up six figures, and, go play our normal game and be glad we didnt lose $168,000 that we wont see again for ages.
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#23
11-03-2005, 04:28 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
Isnt this the same thing as saying "if someone gave you the option to call heads are tails and if you win the coin toss you get 8 dollars if you lose you pay 1 dollar...how many times would you make this bet. [/ QUOTE ] no it isn't because you are not allowed to decrease your stack between hands this is closer to "if it's head I get 8 dollars, tails you get 1 dollar; if I win, the bet for the next flip is heads I get 64 dollars, tails you get 8 dollars, etc." the point being you are risking all of your money as long as he has you covered. this is also similar to who wants to be a millionare only without the stop loss.
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#25
11-03-2005, 06:01 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
What in the FARK is going on here?
Can you guys be serious? Do you guys really think that it matters how many times you go all in with AA vs any random hand? You are getting 80% on every hand you play, you are a favorite to win. I can't believe anyone has mentioned your EQUITY here, this is EXACTLY what you need to consider. If you play every hand until one of you is broke then consider your EQUITY You are placing a $500 wager for a freeroll chance to win a maximum of $125,000 you are getting $500 to $125,000 odds or a 1 to 25. You have to win 8 times in a row in order to take the full $125,000, so... WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF AA HOLDING UP 8 TIMES IN A ROW? .8^8 = ~16% of the time, THATS ABOUT 1 in 6!!!! A 1 to 6 shot getting 1 to 25 on your money You have a positve expected value of about $20,800 if you take this wager until one of your busts out.
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#26
11-03-2005, 06:06 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
YOU ARE A DUMMYHEAD
everybody here knows AA is a pretty good hand vs. a random hand. OP's question isn't "is AA really any good?", it's really a question about risk tolerance. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF AA HOLDING UP 7 TIMES IN A ROW? it's 1/5. So OP is saying, would you rather have a 1/5 shot at 62k, or a 1/6 shot at 125k? etc. CAN YOU BE SERIOUS THAT YOU DONT UNDERSTAND THIS? WHY ARE WE SHOUTING???
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#27
11-03-2005, 06:25 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
Ok. For all of the guys who say, "Until one of us is broke," would your answer changed if Daniel bought in for say, $2,000,000 instead of $125,000? [/ QUOTE ] I think what you are asking is how much risk tolerance do people have. I mean you could just ask something like this: You just won $1,000,000 in the lottery but as you are gong to cash your check a gambler wants to play one hand with the scenario you describe. Would you do it? The easy answer is YES since the math is certainly in your favor * but are you willing to lose the $1,000,000, which would already be a life changing amount for an extra million? If yes would you do it for 2,000,000 or 10,000,000, etc. *Basically you are describing the Martingale System and if it doesn’t work with Black Jack it wouldn’t work here for poor Daniel.
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#28
11-03-2005, 06:31 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
Ok. For all of the guys who say, "Until one of us is broke," would your answer changed if Daniel bought in for say, $2,000,000 instead of $125,000? [/ QUOTE ] 500 to 2,000,000, so 1 to 4000 pot odds You need to only win 11 times to win the total pot AA is favorite over xx 85% of the time .85^11= 1 in 6 !!!!!!!!!!!!!! You will lose 500 dollars 85% of the time, 15% of the time you win 2 million... and you would refuse this offer?
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#29
11-03-2005, 06:56 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
You need to only win 11 times to win the total pot [/ QUOTE ] you don't seem to understand that you can win 10 times and reevaluate, and your "pot odds" are much different. people with a net worth of 1.001 million dont necessarily like making million dollar bets, even as a huge favorite.
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#30
11-03-2005, 07:10 PM
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Re: You have AA every hand . . . when do you quit?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ok. For all of the guys who say, "Until one of us is broke," would your answer changed if Daniel bought in for say, $2,000,000 instead of $125,000? [/ QUOTE ] 500 to 2,000,000, so 1 to 4000 pot odds You need to only win 11 times to win the total pot AA is favorite over xx 85% of the time .85^11= 1 in 6 !!!!!!!!!!!!!! You will lose 500 dollars 85% of the time, 15% of the time you win 2 million... and you would refuse this offer? [/ QUOTE ] No, I would not refuse that offer. Unfortunately, that wasn't the offer. It'd be trivial to say, "I'll give you 4000:1 on a wager of whether pocket aces will hold up 11 times in a row versus 11 randomly dealt hands." This is not the same question as asking, "Now that you've won 10 times in a row and have over a million dollars in front of you, five times more than your entire net worth as of last night, would you like to bet your one million dollars, most of your current life savings, on whether pocket aces will hold up in the next hand?" Personally, I would not wager the majority of my net worth simply to double my money, even if I were an 85% favorite. So I guess my answer to the guestion is that I would stop when my stack exceeds my net worth prior to the start of the game. The question is basically about risk tolerance and utility, rather than expected value. The highest expected value play of course is to play until someone is broke. The expected value is not as high as you may expect though; it's only about $35k for the first case and [$300k] for the second. But the highest EV case is also the most likely case for you to end up out $500 instead of up a few thousand or tens of thousands. As several authors including Sklansky and Brunson have noted, forgoing a +EV gamble with a significant risk of going broke, so that you are able to take advantage of future +EV gambles is not a bad thing. If you were to keep playing until somebody is broke, it will usually be you.
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