Questionable river value bet

[Lmn55d]

Villain has tag stats with AF aroun 1.5. I wasn't prepared to check/fold the river. My feeling was that bet/fold has a higher ev than check/call here.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls.

Flop: (7 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: (4.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

[wackjob]

Should have bet the turn &amp; the river.

tough spot. i suck at this kinda stuff but am trying to get better at it. let me know if you see any mistakes.

what range did you put him on after he called the flop?

i'd probably say: Kx, Jx, QT, pocket pairs like 66-TT, possibly a slowplay with KJ, JJ, or 55, or some weird gutshot like AT, Q9, AQ, etc...

the only hands out of that range that would check the turn through are jacks, gutshots that didn't fill in, and small pocket pairs.

the river really fucks you pretty hard here and i can't see much you're ahead of.

say 44 - TT = (excluding 55 which would have bet the turn)

6 combos 44
6 combos 66
6 combos 77
6 combos 88
6 combos 99
6 combos TT

reasonable jacks

J9 - 8 combos
JT - 8 combos
QJ - 4 combos
KJ - would have bet the turn
AJ - would have bet the turn

42 you beat
20 you lose

considering how ugly that board is for 44-TT against a preflop 3bettor, i think most of these hands are looking to get to SD here cheaply. how often they call a bet here is what's really important.

i think if you check/call here, i'd estimate you're beat like 85 - 90% of the time.

42 you beat, 20 you lose.

if you played out this river 62 times.

20 times you'd bet/fold to his raise for - 20bb

the other 42 times, he'd have to call a bet more than 20 times in the 42 shots to show a profit. 20/42 = 47%, which i think is doable.

i think this is a bet.

let me know if i made some mistakes? thanks.

[Lmn55d]

Any other thoughts?

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
Any other thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

i read it and couldnt decide what to think otehr than that im drunk and need to look at it when im sober. very tough spot though. i really dont think this river bet is for value
but its not a bluff either. so he must have QQ as well.

[King Yao]

[ QUOTE ]
My feeling was that bet/fold has a higher ev than check/call here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I like your idea. Given the play of the hand, he may have a lower pocket pair which he is less likely to bet than he is to call. If I had checked on the River, I feel compelled to call a bet because his play just didn't seem dangerous (just calling on the Flop, and not betting on the Turn). So if I had checked, I would have called. So it comes down to:

Bet/Fold (because a raise can only mean Trip Js or a slow-play)
Check/Call

It does seem Bet/Fold is better because you put yourself in the same position if you have the worse hand (losing one bet), but you give yourself the opportunity to make an extra bet when you may not have made that extra bet if you had checked.

[wheelz]

the problem i have with all this is that i think it's quite rare for a tag to get to the river and then pay you off there with a worse pair. he probably caps tens or better preflop, and how many tags are calling a river bet on this board with 99-66 after another one 3-bets them preflop? he's behind nearly your entire range.

i can see how TT or 99 could decide to put you on a smaller PP and call the river (not all tags cap TT preflop,) but even then there's 12 combos of hands you might get paid off from, while there's also 12 combos of hands that would get this far that you can induce a bluff from (4 combos of T9s, 8 of Q9.) this is also assuming he calls the flop with TT and 99 every time.

if he calls the flop with 66-88, i would go so far as to say you might even have a better chance of allowing him to try and bluff you off a bigger PP or something than have him call a river bet. i know there's players out there who can't let their 88 go no matter how ugly things get, but a tag?

none of your options look particularly appealing at this point, which makes this a tough spot, but i think check-call is still your most profitable line. because i don't expect him to bet a worse pp than yours on the river either, i feel like saying check-fold is even better than bet-fold, but those are big words and i'm not sure so i won't.

[flawless_victory]

i dont really see much value here... this guy almost certainly has a pair, so i dont think he needs to bluff the river.
an advantage to checking not yet mentioned is that villain may check behind with a K.

[Lmn55d]

I think it's close, but I think my best bet is to check and hope 9T or Q9 or a lower PP bluff it. I did think about the chances a King checks behind and I think this is fairly important since the options are all close. Thanks.

[Lmn55d]

good points I think you are right.