($60) sure, NOW i get JJ

[pooh74]

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I don't think this is all that borderline. Even with your read on BS, you still have a good amount of fold equity here, and your destroying a lot of the hands he might call with. The fact that blinds are going up soon gives me more reason to push this as you'll lose almost all fold equity when they do and would thus be playing to limp into third.

IMO...you have way too much fold equity to not push here, the extra 500 in chips is very valuable, and you're a big favorite to double up if called.

FWIW, I probably fold this if UTG pushes.

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I dunno...I think this is where ICM becomes very important and where the correct play shocks your intuition. There are some stack distributions where doubling up is clearly correct and some where playing for third is clearly correct. This, in mind, leans toward the latter.

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Meh. He has 670, not 200. It's not like he's totally wasted. Bluefeet ran a scenario that tried to mock this one, and IMO even that scenario, which was +EV, understates our EV. I shove.

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Like I said...its not wrong to push here, and given UTG is limping a lot you are crushing his range. In real time, after having seen UTG play like a donk I probably shove, but I post on these boards often to play devil's advocate to help me think about these sitauations some more...so, you say "he has 670 no 200". Well, he has 3 hands after this one to double through (he'll be AI on his next SB if he doesnt double on the first two), does that change your thinking or not really?

Another thing to think about regarding FE (and this will be obvious to some, not to others) is that when a bigstack limps, he is planning to call AIs from some but not others...Its always important to think about where you fall in his eyes.

This might not apply here, but I think many players think "well, he limped, so therefore I have FE, pooosh". Often though, you are one of those very players he plans on calling but he limps to avoid the confrontation with the BS (here in the BB). For example, a hand like KQs he does not want to play for his tourney life but will gladly flip with someone who won't even cut him half and will still leave him well within 1st place striking distance.

Dont overestimate FE.


All that being said...you cant really go wrong here except by folding.

[pooh74]

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I dunno...I think this is where ICM becomes very important and where the correct play shocks your intuition. There are some stack distributions where doubling up is clearly correct and some where playing for third is clearly correct. This, in mind, leans toward the latter.

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But we're not even talking about responding to a raise. Just an UTG limp. And the shortstack is not SO short that he is no threat to catch up with you.

So, say you call (now we're down to 1570) and fold to an over on the flop. Shorty doubles up once, he's got ~1340 chips. Our lead on him is almost gone.

By pushing, you're playing for 1st AND simultaneously playing to ITM. I'd never forgive myself if I played this hand weakly and ended up not finishing ITM.

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I never forgive myself for whatever the disaster "flavor of the month" is. Whether its playing it weakly and then losing 4th to shorty, or, playing too agressively and letting a sht stack sneak ITM when it was unnecessary. Being in this spot and finishing 4th is always a heartbreak and no matter which way you utlimately lose, you'll second guess yourself. I guess, the argument is with you because "taking matters into your own hands" is always better then sitting back and letting things happen to you. There are times where both are correct. This is close and I wouldnt fault anyone for playing it either way.

[tigerite]

I say push, even if he calls 100% of the time (which is ludicrous surely) you would only need to be a 68.8% favourite over his range here. I reckon he folds a good 50% of the time here, at the very least, which gives you a limping range of 33+,A5o+,A2s+,KQo,KTs+. Thus I reckon he folds bottom 50% of that lot. It seems fairly clear cut to me.

[bluefeet]

I opted for the 'weaker' line. In the 10 seconds or so it took to decide, a few thoughts ran across my mind. Some warranted, others certainly not.

Again, shortie here had passed on multiple open-pushes in the last orbit and a half. The loose image of the big stacks had its affect on him as well. He seemed content waiting for 'the monster'...apparently hoping I would trip up, or the biggies would go at it (which was actually quite possible - that bad).

With shortie pushing next hand - where he WOULD be called (good or bad), or more likely not, putting himself in in the blinds, the thoughts of "this has come down to a battle for 3rd moment" took over. I had visions/delusions of those "KK+ here" hands when considering ICM. But ultimately I'm pretty sure my self-conscious took the non-productive line of not wanting to get sucked out on by a 2/3-outer. I DO believe that I should have pushed.

Like Pooh said, I was willing to get them all in on an undercard flop. Someone better at math can point out how often that happens with JJ (actually, someone made a quiz/post about this a while back).

The flop came Qs7d8d - just about as bad as it could get. Being stuck between the two, there is just nothing I can do on this street...or others. Short of blind pushing from the middle, I'm not getting a draw off with a modest lead -- which of course is more than I can afford anyway. I ended up giving it up to a strong BB lead when the river brought the 3rd diamond (also straight completing).

Did we go on to bust/win? Bah - no need to be results oriented [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


To the dissenters: I do appreciate the time you took to explore the non-push option. Whether it is justifiable or not, it's healthy to throw it in the mix. If nothing more, but to help solidify from the others the reasons why pushing might be better. The time spent taking in all options make decisions like this a little easier the next time around.