Been thinking about free showdown raises

[kidcolin]

So here's the situation. You're playing against your typical loose passive guy. He limps, you raise. Flop is good. You hit TPTK or TPGK. Now he bets/3-bets you. You know your toast, but you have outs, and you plan on making a crappy river call UI because you don't have much history on the guy. Against passives who usually fear monsters, should we be popping some favorable turns? Or wait to pop a favorable river?

Here's an example from today that got me thinking about it. Villian is something like 50/5/0.8 or something like that. MP sucked too. Hero is Larry Bird.

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Larry Bird is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Larry Bird raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (10.00 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Larry Bird raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, MP calls, Larry Bird calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP calls, Larry Bird ?


Now I'm thinking, "he probably has A4 or AJ, maybe 44. This board is scary as hell against my range. He's probably not 3-betting ever, since I could have AA, KK, AK, AJ, or even QTs. So do you think a raise is better than a call here? How does MP play into all of this? I'll give my thoughts after some discussion gets going.

[MattC]

Think you have to call down here. You'll find that even passive players throw weird [censored] at you. you have mp padding your call down, and yes you have outs against two pair. Theres a lot of things he could be doing this with. Pair + FD, 2 pair, set, pair + gutter to name some and the pot is already pretty big.

[kidcolin]

I think you're missing my point. If I raise, the likelihood of just getting called and it going check-check on the river is very high.

[Chairman Wood]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're missing my point. If I raise, the likelihood of just getting called and it going check-check on the river is very high.




[/ QUOTE ]
And don't forget that extra bet (or two due to MP) that you get when you hit your T for a str8 and you can bet again on the river.

[kidcolin]

Yeah. That's what I'm thinking. Since MP is in there drawing, as am I, but I've decided to showdown, I might as well pop now and get an extra bet from MP in case I hit the river. He'll fold his diamonds on the river.

Well.. that's the whole point of the showdown raise. You're going to showdown anyway, a raise takes the same amount of bets, and you can get an extra one in if you hit. If I had raised, I would've bet any T obviously, plus any K and probably a J. I'd bet/fold a Q. I wouldn't bet a 4 because I've put him on two pair, so he's still winning. Good imaginary plan for the past?

[Chairman Wood]

[ QUOTE ]
Good imaginary plan for the past?

[/ QUOTE ] Sounds cool but I'm still thinking about it. I'll probably go to bed before I make a decision. I'll get back.

[Erik779]

If you are sure he will not 3-bet, It seems like a good play.

[RunDownHouse]

Getting 3bet on this turn sure sucks balls, as does a river donk. If I can be guaranteed to only pay two bets to get to showdown, I'm going to take it in this situation. In addition, part of your reasoning seems to be that you can fire again if you hit a straight on the river. So you're hoping to put two bets in when behind and one bet in when you're ahead? Backwards.

[pokerjunky]

I like it against a very passive/weak tight player but not anyone else. Many aggressive players will either 3 bet you or donk the river anyway. Some seemingly passive guys who aren't very experienced will still think their A4 is the nuts and 3 bet the turn also. Actually, I like this play a lot better when we don't have a draw to go with it since we can more easily fold to a 3 bet.

Just tread carefully in general.

[TheDelChop]

I don't think this is a great time to raise for a free showdown at all.

A raise for a free showdown, as I understand it, entails raising with a marginal hand that you may think is the best but don't want to be forced into folding because of a scary river card. I am really sure that it requires that you be heads up.

It just seems here that you are clearly beat but don't want to fold, a leak that I am also trying to correct.