Folding the flop for one bet is cool

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not time to move on.

you're not making a one small bet mistake.

you're making a POT mistake whenever you fold what would turn out to be the winning hand.

in other words, folding this flop is not only grossly incorrect, but it is a HUGE mistake that will cost you a LOT of money in both the short and long term.

making incorrect folds with this much equity in large pots is a terrible error.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often will you actually make the winning hand though?

It's obviously NOT a Pot-Sized mistake. We don't have 100% equity, obviously. We may not have 10% equity. I agree that I probably call here but I don't think folding is anything more than a 1 SB mistake. Think about it, we'd need to be getting an even money overlay on our call here to make folding be more than a 1 SB mistake. Do you really think we're winning this that often?

People need to stop thinking about "mathematical catastrophes" and stuff like that. This may be a costly error, but it's not a "POT mistake."

[ErrantNight]

your equity in this hand after that first bet goes in is much greater than 10%. folding here really is terrible.

no, it's not a pot mistake until the river when/if you're put to a decision for the entire pot.

and raising is better than calling.

[ErrantNight]

you're right. i was exaggerating and it was detrimental to my argument. to be more specific, what i said was flat out WRONG.

that said, so folding this flop, particularly as a standard play.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
This is one of the very few situations where I would raise in a multiway pot with an unimproved AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too...

I went on numerous tirades over the summer about how I thought people raised overcards too often, but, frankly, I can't see anything else I like doing here. This just happens to be a spot where it's going to be right. Pot size and relative position are the determining factors.

[SNOWBALL138]

quote] (a) you probably don't have the flop bettor beaten. at least not yet.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's betting any 2 overcards here, but he's also betting any pair. Assuming that he's completing any 2 there are more hands that contain two overcards than there are hands that contain a pair as far as I know. Maybe its less than half the time, but I doubt it.

[ QUOTE ]
(b) with opponents behind you, it's just as likely you actually have better odds than your immediate odds as it is you'll face worse odds if someone raises

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't matter if I'm just as likely to get better odds as I am to get worse odds, because the times I get worse odds are horrible, and the times I get better odds aren't really that great. You can't weight these two outcomes equally. When you get raised, your odds are almost cut in half. When you get overcalled they are increased by much less.

[ QUOTE ]
(c) even if someone raises, you have sufficient equity to continue, rather easily


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but I would wish that I had folded once it gets raised behind me. Calling two bets one at a time is just as
-EV as calling two cold.

[ QUOTE ]
(e) if a J comes off your continuation will be depend on the actions

(f) if a spade comes off your equity is huge and continuing is easy

[/ QUOTE ]
true.

[SNOWBALL138]

"I am surprised there is so much discussion on this seems a pretty standard raise to me, we are in an ideal position to protect our hand, if we can push out anyone with a pair behind or a baby flush draw whatever then we have improved our chances of winning the pot which is a decent size.
"

why would someone fold a small flush draw?
I agree with everything else you said. I think its a closer decision than other people are making it sounds though. I don't think I'm giving up a lot by folding, but I'm definitely giving up something, and pushing every edge you can find is what winning poker is about.

[ErrantNight]

your opponent is not betting any two overcards here. get that out of your head. he's betting pairs, flush draws, or straight draws. overcards check to the raiser the vast majority of the time. should you account for the possibility as an outside chance? perhaps... but you shouldn't presume that it's anything more than unlikely.

and it matters HUGELY if you're just as likely to get better than worse odds. and one of the MOST important things about this hand is that the turn will frequently give you, if not the best hand, redraws to the best hand. which means your implied odds can be large, and the turn can be easy to play. further, your opponents may face severe reverse implied odds.

If it gets raised behind you, you're certainly not happy, but it doesn't happen that frequently, and when it does, you've got enough chances to improve that it's not a travesty.