Empire 2/4. Playing TPTK vs. passive PF-3 bettor

[SNOWBALL138]

mp2 is 29/7.7/.80 over 168 hands. I I thought my flop call was fine. On the turn, I thought that I was probably behind, and didn't want to pay 2 bets for my ~6 outer. When he bet the turn I felt even more strongly I was behind.
When he bet the river, I was really close to folding.

I think the river is probably a bet/fold or a check-fold. Its more strongly a check/fold, because I couldn't figure out one single hand that I was ahead of. What do you guys think? Does anyone else play the flop and turn differently?


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB
<font color="#009B00">Main Pot: 10.25 BB, between UTG+1, Hero and MP2.</font>

[Nick C]

I'd probably play it the same way.

However, folding the turn really does seem like an option. Sometimes you'll have just 4 outs. Sometimes you'll have 6. And there's some chance you're chopping. But if Villain will bet AQ on the flop, then you gotta figure he'll bet AK as well, which is more combos, and you have only 3 outs to a chop against that hand.

A reason to call the turn is that Villain might have 88 and bet here but then check behind on the river. From this opponent, the river check behind seems likely but the turn bet doesn't, as much.

Check-folding the river seems like something to consider, too, but I usually don't trust my read that much. Still, I really doubt you're winning or chopping. I'd imagine Villain showed you one of the usual 3-betting hands that you lose to here.

Edit: I just read Yako's post, and it appears there's pretty much no way you ever have exactly 6 outs on the turn. (I had AA in mind but forgot we only chop on the four kings.) So the situation is bleaker than I realized.

[Yako]

Ok, what do you guys think villain 3bets here?
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK... You guys think he 3bets AQ? Let's assume he does, just for the hell of it...

Ok, so flop is an easy call.

Now, on the turn. Let's do comboes first for villain

You're ahead of...
Zilch.
You're behind...
AK - 12
AA - 6
KK - 6
QQ - 1
JJ - 3
TT - 3

You tie
AQ - 6

All out figures assume op doesn't have 2 diamonds by the way.
Ok, against QQ, JJ, TT, you have 4 outs... so 7 comboes / 4outs
against AA, you split with 4 cards, win with 2 Queens 6 comboes / 4 ties, 2 wins, so 4 outs
Against AK, you split with 3 cards... 12 combos / 3 ties / 1,5 outs

Against KK, you win with 2 queens and 2 kings, so 6 comboes, 4 outs.

Against AQ, you always tie, so 6 comboes, infinite outs. However, since you said that on the turn you felt like you were behind, we can assume that you have 4 outs AT BEST.

Now, to call the turn, your immediate odds are 7.25:1 Let's pretend that if ever you hit one of your 4 outs, you'll always c/r op, he'll call, and you'll win, which is REALLY far from reality. In that case, you're getting 9:25:1 with implied odds... With 4 outs, you need 10.5:1 to call. Easy turn fold.

Granted, without considerable time to ponder this decision, I'd prolly call the turn. But I really think you have to fold the river.

After further calcs., it appears that you have, on average, 3.04 outs (if I calculated right.I multiplied outs by comboes, added the totals together, and divided the total number of outs by the total number of combos. Not sure if this is how it's supposed to be done).

[Zeatrix]

I feel it's either fold on the flop or call the whole way. If you want to be really solid you'll see that you might only have 3 outs to the nut straight and only against QQ do you have more outs.

In reality I would probably check/call all the way but in theory i would fold...

[Nick Royale]

On the turn:

AK: 1.5 outs (12 combos)
AA-TT: 4 outs (13)

(1.5*12 + 4*13) / (12 + 13) = 2.8 outs

If we suspect this opponent is reasonable in is raising standards preflop, the turn is a fold. 7.7% pfr suggests he's not overaggressive, so I think a fold is fine.

The question is how often he could be doing this with AQ/KQ/99.

[ArturiusX]

Come on guys, who does this calc [censored] on the run?

Check-raise the turn, fold to a 3-bet, simple.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
All out figures assume op doesn't have 2 diamonds by the way.

[/ QUOTE ]
Using this hand range it doesn't matter. He obviously can't hold AK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and if he holds AK our only outs is by splitting the pot if a K falls on the river. If he holds AK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] this K obviously can't be the K of [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] completing his flush, since he holds it.

[ QUOTE ]
Granted, without considerable time to ponder this decision, I'd prolly call the turn. But I really think you have to fold the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
To make this line correct you need to think he'll check behing with AQ or be able to bet the turn and check behind with 99/88.

[ QUOTE ]
After further calcs., it appears that you have, on average, 3.04 outs (if I calculated right.I multiplied outs by comboes, added the totals together, and divided the total number of outs by the total number of combos. Not sure if this is how it's supposed to be done).

[/ QUOTE ]
If you're counting by using the full ammount of AQ combos for villain (6 combos) you'll not get 3.04 outs (~6.5 outs). We have 44 split outs, thus 22 outs. But as said, to count these we need to be able to call the river and counting these combos full would be a mistake imo. I like folding the turn.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Come on guys, who does this calc [censored] on the run?

Check-raise the turn, fold to a 3-bet, simple.

[/ QUOTE ]
That line sucks. Not only are you putting 2BB in the pot when you're 100% screwed, you're making an incorrect fold very often if villain is capable of 3-betting QQ/JJ/TT, and many will. The only line I can think of that's worse would be c/r-cap.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel it's either fold on the flop or call the whole way. If you want to be really solid you'll see that you might only have 3 outs to the nut straight and only against QQ do you have more outs.

In reality I would probably check/call all the way but in theory i would fold...

[/ QUOTE ]
The flop call is pretty easy:
AK: 4
KK: 6
QQ: 7
JJ/TT: 4

We only need 4 to continue, so this is an easy call.

AK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] only sets up for a big redraw since we won't hit our hand at the same time he hits his flush.

[ArturiusX]

Perhaps we have different views, but I don't think .80s 3-bet with QQ/JJ/TT. Everytime we're 3-bet after we check-raise, we are beat.