was i too aggressive with these kings?

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I really can't see how you find any value in raising the river against a tagish players here. I have to put him on AA/QQ/AQ/(KK). I don't think he's betting either the turn or river with JJ/TT but it seems you do. Even if he does that a small portion of the time JJ is now ahead. I've already posted my thoughts and the fact that I think raising the turn or river is bad stands.

[/ QUOTE ]

My basic point is just that I think his turn bet is kind of strange, and though AA/AQ/QQ are certainly his most likely hands, a turn bet here is more consistent with AQ, JJ, and TT then anything else, as I think the standard plays for most players with AA or QQ would be different (I think players usually cap/lead turn with AA and check-raise turn with QQ).

It's certainly very close and I'm starting to think calling down after the turn bet may be better, but I'm really not sure. I'd love a better read.

[sy_or_bust]

i'd call the turn. SB's lead will be followed by a 3-bet or fold a lot, both of which you probably dont want. the only hands that conceivably call the raise are maybe AQ and a poor AA (which he probably had). raising a non-scare card (JJ is not one) on the river is probably ok, though it deserves some math.

[cpk]

I appreciate the thought you put into this post, but I think you're being too conservative in discounting AQ. Even if the possibilities are just AQ/QQ/AA/KK, that's still 12.5:9.5, which is a 57% edge. That makes raising razor-thin, but not wrong, as few people will fold any of these hands.

Just because you wouldn't play AQ in this way doesn't mean that everyone takes that approach. Lots of people do. And God bless them.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I appreciate the thought you put into this post

[/ QUOTE ]
I appreciate the thought you didn't put into this post as it might educate others.

[ QUOTE ]
but I think you're being too conservative in discounting AQ. Even if the possibilities are just AQ/QQ/AA/KK, that's still 12.5:9.5, which is a 57% edge. That makes raising razor-thin, but not wrong, as few people will fold any of these hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
You need an equity >60% to raise and even if you consider the possibility of the tag raising AQ the same as him as him raising AA you don't get an equity greater than 60%. And assuming he'll reraise AQ as often as AA preflop is ridiculous. He has tagish stats and a good tag wouldn't 3-bet AQ.

[ QUOTE ]
Just because you wouldn't play AQ in this way doesn't mean that everyone takes that approach. Lots of people do. And God bless them.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's why I assume 50% of the tags still will 3-bet AQ here preflop even though it's wrong. I think that's an overestimate big enough.

[Adam22]

as long as this thread's going, here's another one:

i am read/statless.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (14.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.50 BB

[Nick Royale]

I think calling down from the turn bet is the only way to go. Not because I'm worried about the 8s pairing, but I don't think the average player will lead this turn with Qs (and to make this raise profitable he will have to lead Js a large portion of the time).