was i too aggressive with these kings?

Adam22 · #1 11-18-2005, 02:16 AM

villain has tag stats

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, Hero caps, SB calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

River: (12.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

cpk · #2 11-18-2005, 02:20 AM

stizzandard

einbert · #3 11-18-2005, 02:21 AM

I think the way you played it is correct.

#4 11-18-2005, 03:03 AM

Looks great. Villain realizes his AQs is no good on turn, crying calls river?

silkyslim · #5 11-18-2005, 03:10 AM

this seems fine. so with the preflop, flop and turn action i put SB on AA, KK, AQ. thoughts on this range?

Adam22 · #6 11-18-2005, 04:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Looks great. Villain realizes his AQs is no good on turn, crying calls river?

[/ QUOTE ]

you're good. i was scared carpless he was going to flip over AA, thinking i had QQ.

Nick Royale · #7 11-18-2005, 01:09 PM

I have to say I think all posters are wrong.

AA: 6 combos
KK: 1 combo (but I won't consider this since it's a split anyway and we're going to a sd here)
QQ: 3 combos
AQ: 6 combos (discounted from 12, OOP against a tag raising 2 players from MP3 3-betting AQ isn't such a good idea IMO)
JJ: 6 combos
TT: 3 combos (discounted from 6)
The chance of being up against KQ is compensated by the risk of villain holding 99.

When he check/raises the flop I think all of these hands still are likely. I think the standard tag is slightly more likely to do it with AQ than JJ/TT, while I'm more inclined to do it with JJ/TT. An argument could be made for going into WA/WB-mode, but I want to discuss this turn after a flop 3-bet first.

At the turn when he bets, which are his likely holdings? I would like to narrow it to AQ/AA/QQ. I somehow get the feeling this bet smells a little more like AQ being played in confusion than AA/QQ. But at the same time, overall, players are more likely to bet their strong holdings. And betting AQ would be a stupid thing to do and we're not dealing with a nutcase here. So if we're only looking at this from a hand distrubution perpective (I think that's the best way to evaluate this situation) we're only ahead 40% of the time here making a raise awfull.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s 3c

Hand 1: 33.2792 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 66.7208 % { AA, QQ, AQs, AhQc, AsQc }

[/ QUOTE ]
And our equity is only ~33%.

Now to the going into WA/WB-mode on the flop. You could argue the 2 spades foils this that plan, but there's only one reasonable hand villain could hold giving him a fd (AQ[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]). I actually like going into WA/WB-mode, a better hand won't get the opportunty to cap or check/raise us on the turn, which would suck. Besides we earn more when he has JJ/TT:

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s

Hand 1: 89.6717 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 10.3283 % { JJ-TT }

[/ QUOTE ]
With x being the chance of him calling down with JJ/TT anyway:
2*2*0.9 - (8.5*2 + 2*2)*0.05 - (1 + 2*2)x = 2.55 - 5x
5x = 2.55 ---> x = 51%

Thus, if he folds JJ/TT more than 51% on the turn because we 3-betted the flop we'll make a profit against JJ/TT, which I believe a TAG will. This along with the fact that we're not in such a good shape on the flop as we might think (actually only 60% equity against the range of hands I have put him on) makes the calldown fro the flop check/raise to seem easy.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Qd 9s 6s

Hand 1: 60.0894 % { KcKs }
Hand 2: 39.9106 % { AA, QQ-TT, AQs, AhQc, AsQc }

[/ QUOTE ]

W. Deranged · #8 11-18-2005, 01:48 PM

Adam,

I think the important thing here is to read the meaning of villain's turn donk-bet. There are a couple of possibilities:

1. Villain's turn donk-bet is free-card-blocking. Villain is probably good enough to realize that, with the spades there, you might be playing very aggressively on some kind of big draw, and really doesn't want to let the turn check through. Similarly, villain could be waiting to see a safe turn card before pressuring ahead.

This is the most likely reason in my opinion. (AA, AQ, and to a lesser degree TT and JJ, are the most likely hands using this line).

2. Villain is playing a creative flop-check-raise, turn-bet-three-bet line with a monster hand like QQ.

This is possible, but in my opinion this is a pretty creative, pretty expert line that even most tags wouldn't think of. It would require a very sound read on you, and resisting the urge to check-raise the turn. I think far more players with QQ would either check-raise the turn after the flop three-bet, or simply cap and lead.

A couple of other thoughts:

1. I don't particularly think a flop check-raise is indicative of JJ or TT, but I also don't think those hands are totally unlikely to check-raise either. This is where your table image would be nice to know. Villain may think you're a bit aggro or something, and may decide he wants to play his mid pocket pairs pretty fast and more or less commit to seeing showdown. Then again, he could think you're a rock and only play on with AA or QQ. Table image is important.

I don't know. This is a tough hand. I think raising the turn is fine, but I don't really like calling down a three-bet and a river bet. For that reason, I almost prefer calling the turn and raising the river, because I find it easier to fold to a three-bet there.

Nick Royale · #9 11-18-2005, 02:03 PM

I really can't see how you find any value in raising the river against a tagish players here. I have to put him on AA/QQ/AQ/(KK). I don't think he's betting either the turn or river with JJ/TT but it seems you do. Even if he does that a small portion of the time JJ is now ahead. I've already posted my thoughts and the fact that I think raising the turn or river is bad stands.

einbert · #10 11-18-2005, 02:30 PM

When I first read the hand I was extremely tired and gave a quick and dirty analysis in my mind before collapsing asleep. At that time I had a fairly strong suspicion that raising the turn was wrong. I think Nick Royale's analysis confirms that suspicion.

In any event the turn is probably pretty close between a raise and a call. But a call is probably better as Nick demonstrated mathematically.