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  #11  
Old 11-13-2005, 12:35 AM
Monty Cantsin Monty Cantsin is offline
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Default Re: checking to see if running bad

[ QUOTE ]
...it should tell if I am getting short changed on certain hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you care?

If I could magically give you your absolute %100 accurate winrate (as if such a thing existed!) how would that help you? What are you planning to do with this information?

I'm going to go even further, and suggest that your concern over how badly you've run suggests not bad luck but poor play.

/mc
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  #12  
Old 11-13-2005, 12:43 AM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Default Re: checking to see if running bad

[ QUOTE ]
You should have 1 premium every 200 hundred hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure this is a good ballpark estimate. (I know the actual number would be slightly different for each premium hand.)

After 27,666 hands of 10/20 (some full some 6 max), I have had 187 straights, 200 flushes, and 206 full houses. Either I'm running really really really good or premiums should be coming a bit more frequently. (You predict 138 of each.)

Looking just at 6max hands (so there is some overlap with the above numbers), I have played a total of 39,924 hands at 4 different limits (1/2, 5/10, 10/20, 15/30). (But 75% of the hands are from 5/10 and 10/20.) I have had 342 straights, 300 flushes, and 292 full houses. (You predict just under 200 of each.)

I know it's possible to run really good over large samples of hands, but I wonder if the data you used was right and/or your method was reliable.

I would generally say that I am pretty loose in drawing to straights and flushes, meaning that if I err in estimating my implied odds it's probably a bit on the high side. So I might be continuing with a gutshot or a BD flush draw slightly more often than others. I also have a pretty high VPIP (26% at 6max over all four limits), which means I will hit a few more premiums than someone with a 22% VPIP.

So I am a bit skeptical, given my playing style and approach to the game, that I am running as good as you say I am. I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn I am running good and making more premium hands than would be expected. Just not as good as you predict I am.

(The other wierd thing is that my premium are almost all as frequent as each other as you predict, and it's very unlikely that all my premiums would occur equally as often if they were all outlying amount. Meaning it's very strange to be running with the same exceptional goodness in all three types of premiums, none running significantly better or worse than the other two -- just all three running really hot.)

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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  #13  
Old 11-13-2005, 12:46 AM
krishanleong krishanleong is offline
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Default Re: checking to see if running bad

[ QUOTE ]
After 27,666

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this total hands, or the total hands indicated on the misc tab? They are different.

Krishan
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  #14  
Old 11-13-2005, 12:54 AM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Default Re: checking to see if running bad

Yes all figures are total hands, not just total times shown on the Misc Tab. Sorry I didn't make that explicit in the first post.
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  #15  
Old 11-13-2005, 12:58 AM
krishanleong krishanleong is offline
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Default Re: checking to see if running bad

[ QUOTE ]
Yes all figures are total hands, not just total times shown on the Misc Tab. Sorry I didn't make that explicit in the first post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, you should only be counting premiums that go to showdown.

Krishan
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  #16  
Old 11-13-2005, 12:59 AM
BIGRED BIGRED is offline
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Default Re: checking to see if running bad

[ QUOTE ]

Why do you care?


[/ QUOTE ]
I care because I'm starting to suspect that I am coming in with a lot more 2nd best hands than usual. So when I read about Krishanleong's method, naturally, I got interested?

[ QUOTE ]

If I could magically give you your absolute %100 accurate winrate (as if such a thing existed!) how would that help you? What are you planning to do with this information?


[/ QUOTE ]
I wans't looking for my absolute winrate.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm going to go even further, and suggest that your concern over how badly you've run suggests not bad luck but poor play.


[/ QUOTE ]
I did consider that, but like I said, you can't help but wonder if you are running bad if all you remember after every session is how more than half your flopped sets ran into a flush or a straight without improving, or how easily those draws come in against you with or without odds, but when you need to hit something, you just can't seem to catch a break.

I am not ignoring the likely possibility that I may be doing something wrong to compound this down streak. Maybe this is something I should've said when I started this thread, but what's with the negativity?
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  #17  
Old 11-13-2005, 01:04 AM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Default Re: checking to see if running bad

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes all figures are total hands, not just total times shown on the Misc Tab. Sorry I didn't make that explicit in the first post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, you should only be counting premiums that go to showdown.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh I am a Dumas. I was counting premiums that saw the flop for some reason. For my ~40K 6 max hands, the corrected figures are:
264 straights, 228 flushes, 229 full houses.

Which suggests I am running good in terms of frequency of premiums, but not absurdly good (well maybe with straights, but I think I recall they are supposed to occur a bit more than 1 in 200 hands). Though I am still showing down about 15% more flushes and full houses than would be expected -- perhaps my loose postflop style has some impact on that (or I am just running that good -- no way to tell from the stats alone).

Sorry for the misunderstanding. Thanks for clarifying.
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  #18  
Old 11-13-2005, 01:31 AM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Default Re: checking to see if running bad

Going through the numbers, my distribution is very consistent with making each premium hand once every 170 dealt hands. Over the 40K sample, that predicts 235 of each premium, whereas it's been 264, 228, and 229. Which makes a bit more sense and doesn't make me feel like my winrate is inflated by 8 BB/100 or something.
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  #19  
Old 11-13-2005, 01:32 AM
BIGRED BIGRED is offline
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Default Restating my 2nd question, just in case it was missed

[ QUOTE ]
You aren't suppose to use the %s to tell if you are running bad. You are only suppose to do what I did. Hell I invented it, I'm pretty sure I'm doing it right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am sorry if I misunderstood your approach. You looked at my W$SD and said that it was in line, therefore no anamolies there, and I have no further questions on that point. But my second question to you was on the last column, % of Total Hands.

You said,

"One pair, two pair, three of a kind, straights, flushes and full houses comprise over 93% of money earned. Here is the breakdown in terms of %.

One pair ---- 21.9%
Two pair ---- 24.7%
Three ------- 14.5%
Straight ---- 12.0%
Flush ------- 11.4%
Full House -- 10.7% "

My shown down hands are not distributed like this. Using Flushes as an example, if only 4.87% of my shown down hands are flushes, where as your research found that number to be 11.4%, then am I not missing out?

I understand that winning at above 80% with flushes is good, but if I'm showing down with less flushes, then I'm winning that 80% less number of times.

[ QUOTE ]
You are also not suppose to try and analyse you game using this method. Try posting hands if you want to get better. Any more and I'm posting a limerick...

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what a limerick is, but this is one of the ways I'm trying to analyze my game. I don't want to go tweaking my game if running bad is all it is.
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  #20  
Old 11-13-2005, 01:36 AM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Default Re: checking to see if running bad

You are showing down premium hands less often than me. I am showing each type down about once every 170 hands or so, whereas you're closer to once every 200-210 hands or so.

Some of this is likely running bad. But you have a low WtSD% and a high W$SD%, which suggests to me you may be making bad folds. This could include not taking gutshot draws and BD flush draws into account when deciding what to do on the flop.

So it looks like you are probably running bad, but how much of your bad results it explains is hard to say. Keep posting hands and analyzing your play. Try not to fret over the short-term results, just concentrate on making good winning plays.

Best of luck at the tables!
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