week 5 "What we learned" post

[FishNChips]

1 - The Chargers are a good team, but they are not the ATS monster that they were last year. They have very large holes in the 2ndary (3 plays, 71 seconds, TD for the Steelers???). I'm a fan of the Chargers so I'm staying away anyhow, but I'm having a really hard time figuring out who the real Chargers are? The Champ Killers of last week or the self killers of this week (no offense Steeler fans, your guys played a fantastic game, but the Bolts had WAY too many penalties in the game and still almost won the game) - they are an enigma and I'd stay away here.

2 - the Patriots are a bigger mystery. They ran like hell against an (allegedly) very good defensive team IN Atlanta. The week before the Chargers owned them. The week before that they beat the Steelers. Again, I'm staying away from the champs unless a line jumps out and bites me.

3 - Vinny Testeverde is old and he can still chuck it. In other news, Tampa is still not very good north of the Mason/Dixon line. Can someone please chime in about what to do with the Jets? Also, paying close attention to Carnell Williams health is pretty important right now, though I'm on the "fade the Bucs" bandwagon right about now (they've lost 3 strt ATS).

4 - Houston might be getting heavy "FADE ME TILL I PROVE OTHERWISE" action. 0-4 ATS and have only been close 1 week (at Bengals in wk4). This includes being favorites twice and getting run out of the building in both weeks. They still can't protect Carr, or he still takes too long to get rid of the ball, but whatever, he's getting killed again.

5 - Denver might be for real. Other than the turd in week 1 AT Miami (can an NFL team take another NFL team lightly and if so, would that actually affect the outcome? If so, that's what I'm blaming the week1 debacle on) the Broncs have posted 4 SOLID wins. The problem is that they are only 2-1-1 ATS in that stretch (though I really think the Redskins line was a bad one). I think I'm staying away in wk6 because they host the Pats, but otherwise I'm looking for good things from them (god help me, I just showed confidence in Jake Plummer).

other thoughts?
FishNChips

[ QUOTE ]
4 - Houston might be getting heavy "FADE ME TILL I PROVE OTHERWISE" action. 0-4 ATS and have only been close 1 week (at Bengals in wk4). This includes being favorites twice and getting run out of the building in both weeks. They still can't protect Carr, or he still takes too long to get rid of the ball, but whatever, he's getting killed again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Four weeks into the NFL season, the square public has generally formed an opinion about an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS team and the oddsmakers alter the team's line to fit this opinion. Unless you believe they have erred in doing so this time around, I don't suggest fading them on cause alone of 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS.

[Bill C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
4 - Houston might be getting heavy "FADE ME TILL I PROVE OTHERWISE" action. 0-4 ATS and have only been close 1 week (at Bengals in wk4). This includes being favorites twice and getting run out of the building in both weeks. They still can't protect Carr, or he still takes too long to get rid of the ball, but whatever, he's getting killed again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Four weeks into the NFL season, the square public has generally formed an opinion about an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS team and the oddsmakers alter the team's line to fit this opinion. Unless you believe they have erred in doing so this time around, I don't suggest fading them on cause alone of 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS.

[/ QUOTE ]

They almost have to be a BSP play this week.
Only Sicko players (like me) are betting them now.
bc

[FishNChips]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
4 - Houston might be getting heavy "FADE ME TILL I PROVE OTHERWISE" action. 0-4 ATS and have only been close 1 week (at Bengals in wk4). This includes being favorites twice and getting run out of the building in both weeks. They still can't protect Carr, or he still takes too long to get rid of the ball, but whatever, he's getting killed again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Four weeks into the NFL season, the square public has generally formed an opinion about an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS team and the oddsmakers alter the team's line to fit this opinion. Unless you believe they have erred in doing so this time around, I don't suggest fading them on cause alone of 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS.

[/ QUOTE ]

excellent point .. this is why you make $$ and I do it for humor. I will now read and learn from others wisdom!

thanks,
FishNChips

[NoChance]

[ QUOTE ]
2 - the Patriots are a bigger mystery. They ran like hell against an (allegedly) very good defensive team IN Atlanta. The week before the Chargers owned them. The week before that they beat the Steelers. Again, I'm staying away from the champs unless a line jumps out and bites me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I keep telling everyone but nobody listens. The Steelers played a horrible game against the Patriots. The Patriots tried to give the game away and the Steelers refused to take it. Take a good look at the Patriot games this year. They beat a very poor Oakland team as expected. They got beat soundly against Carolina. They beat the Steelers on the last drive when the Steelers played a bad game (admittedly the Patriots played bad as well though). They got crushed by Chargers. They beat the Vick-less Falcons on the last drive of the game that probably should have been a drive to tie the game because of the blown call on that sidline play that 'probably' would have given the Falcons at least a field goal. They could easily be 1-4 right now.

I'm not saying they are a bad team. I am saying things have mounted up against them with a tough schedule and tons of injuries. Some things are just too hard to overcome.

[ QUOTE ]
1 - The Chargers are a good team, but they are not the ATS monster that they were last year. They have very large holes in the 2ndary (3 plays, 71 seconds, TD for the Steelers???). I'm a fan of the Chargers so I'm staying away anyhow, but I'm having a really hard time figuring out who the real Chargers are? The Champ Killers of last week or the self killers of this week (no offense Steeler fans, your guys played a fantastic game, but the Bolts had WAY too many penalties in the game and still almost won the game) - they are an enigma and I'd stay away here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Chargers could be 5-0 right now. They have been in every game. However, I think they have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this year. They will be in every game but I am guessing they may not make the playoffs because of their schedule.

[ QUOTE ]
5 - Denver might be for real. Other than the turd in week 1 AT Miami (can an NFL team take another NFL team lightly and if so, would that actually affect the outcome? If so, that's what I'm blaming the week1 debacle on) the Broncs have posted 4 SOLID wins. The problem is that they are only 2-1-1 ATS in that stretch (though I really think the Redskins line was a bad one). I think I'm staying away in wk6 because they host the Pats, but otherwise I'm looking for good things from them (god help me, I just showed confidence in Jake Plummer).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Denver is for real unless the fall behind and have to rely on Plummer. They are a very good team when they have the lead. All great running teams are like that. It's very difficult to catch up to teams like Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Atlanta, San Diego, and Denver when you fall behind. I think the line is wrong again this week and Denver should be favored more like -5 or -6 this week.

[ QUOTE ]
The Chargers could be 5-0 right now. They have been in every game. However, I think they have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this year. They will be in every game but I am guessing they may not make the playoffs because of their schedule.

[/ QUOTE ]

Were absolutely terrible at Denver...most misleading 3 point result of the year. The Chargers aren't nearly as "for real" as believed and never deserved to beat the Broncos nor should have let the Cowboys play them close in week 1. I agree with your other points.

[McGahee]

I like your posts most of the time, but I'm not sure what NE-Pit game you were watching. Yeah the Steelers could've played better, but NE was -2 in turnovers, had 100+ yards of penalties, AND it was a revenge game for Pit at home PLUS all of the injuries and they STILL won....most impressive win of the year by any team so far this year IMO.

I almost feel guilty arguing against Denver because to their credit they have more quality wins than anybody else so far this year...
I just have a hard time trusting Plummer and even Shanahan in a big spot, and the defense while good, is playing a little over their heads right now IMO. Of course I said the same about the Jets last year and they continued to play solid D all season, so we'll see.

[NoChance]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah the Steelers could've played better, but NE was -2 in turnovers, had 100+ yards of penalties, AND it was a revenge game for Pit at home PLUS all of the injuries and they STILL won

[/ QUOTE ]

You are proving my point about how bad the Steelers played. Think about it. Also, I am not crying about it, complainging about it, or anything else. I am simply saying they played a very bad game. New England deserved to win even with all that you mentioned. Again, that's how bad the Steelers played. Open your eyes. That is not typical of Pittsburgh to lose a game under those circumstances. And with all that you mentioned, please don't say New England played a good game. As a Steeler fan, I would be very unhappy to be -2 on turnovers each week and also have over 100 yards in penalties. I've said it many times. BOTH teams played badly that day.

[McGahee]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah the Steelers could've played better, but NE was -2 in turnovers, had 100+ yards of penalties, AND it was a revenge game for Pit at home PLUS all of the injuries and they STILL won

[/ QUOTE ]

You are proving my point about how bad the Steelers played. Think about it. Also, I am not crying about it, complainging about it, or anything else. I am simply saying they played a very bad game. New England deserved to win even with all that you mentioned. Again, that's how bad the Steelers played. Open your eyes. That is not typical of Pittsburgh to lose a game under those circumstances. And with all that you mentioned, please don't say New England played a good game. As a Steeler fan, I would be very unhappy to be -2 on turnovers each week and also have over 100 yards in penalties. I've said it many times. BOTH teams played badly that day.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, agree to disagree I guess.
The premise of your argument is just mind-bogglingly false IMO.

[NoChance]

Sounds good. Different perspecitves can only be good because it makes you re-think things.