Going against the public

Webster · #1 09-30-2005, 07:14 AM

Not that is is a valid way to do it. But according to wagerling the public is HOT on

T.B
Oakland
Cinci
Atlanta
Indy

I track this for a few years and going against the crowd on games with heavy action on one side is still a 50/50 bet.

Still - I'd rather go against Joe Public then with him.

I'm still saying Minn at +5.5 (I got +6) is a good one. I'll lose by 30 or win by 3

mosuavea · #2 09-30-2005, 09:03 AM

Im sure my brother who posts here will chime in as he has been looking over the public numbers for the past few weeks and has been doing quite well in betting gainst them.

Webster · #3 09-30-2005, 09:28 AM

My system does great against the public but you really have to pick and choose. Blindly going against the public 3 years ago was a huge losing trend as the favs won many many times. The public was outstanding.

prk · #4 09-30-2005, 12:03 PM

It's a mixture of line movements AND fading the public. You need to really watch how the lines are moving especially closer to game time.

Webster · #5 09-30-2005, 12:16 PM

I have a nice parlay card system (the kind from bars) that works nicely. Basically compare the Friday lines to the card lines. I have not used this much lately because of computers but 10-15 years ago it was sweet!

The only time you can really take advantage of line movements

Feltin Licter · #6 09-30-2005, 12:20 PM

Anyone have a site that shows what games Joe Public is heavy on?

mrbaseball · #7 09-30-2005, 12:26 PM

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You need to really watch how the lines are moving especially closer to game time.

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What does this tell you? The line was moving strong in favor of the Rams in week one. Does it mean you should fade the line move as well as the public?

Slacker13 · #8 09-30-2005, 12:43 PM

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Blindly going against the public 3 years ago was a huge losing trend as the favs won many many times. The public was outstanding.

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Three yrs ago is when Roxy Roxboruogh (sp?) retired. For those who dont know who he is, he is the owner of Americas Line out of Vegas, he has been setting betting lines for the casinos for 30-40 years. Once he retired the offshores, Criss in particular started setting the lines and it was a major clusterfck for a while. Guys like me who bet dogs, and will always be against the public had a rough ride for awhile. There were even articles coming out of vegas at the time talking how the casino/sportsbook were getting drilled by the general public. I had heard they were taking a beating on those parlay cards that they put in the rooms at the time, you know when the parlay cards are beating you there is a problem with the lines.

They have since adjusted and i expect the gen public will continue losing as usual in the long haul.

Slacker13 · #9 09-30-2005, 01:28 PM

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What does this tell you? The line was moving strong in favor of the Rams in week one. Does it mean you should fade the line move as well as the public?

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You should read through some of my old posts on this subject. The only line moves than mean anything are those when the line is first posted and in the last few minutes leading up to gametime. The only exception would be a major injury report that comes out. Other than that the line moves in between that time are the general public. However, if you "read between the lines" a lot of information is at your finger tips. If Pit is -3 lay 05 juice it may be a good indication the sportsbooks are baiting you to take Pit.

Sportsbooks are out to make money and it would be very hard to beleive that they dont have opinions on games themselves. I know small bookmakers who adjust lines to bait the public, why wouldn't the alrge sportsbook do it too. I have heard and i honestly do not know if it is true or not but i have heard that the casinos communicate with one another and will select certain games to bait the public to make money for the books. Like i said i dont know if it true but why wouldn't they? I would if i owned a sportsbook. When the general public looks at a line and you hear a large amount of people saying this line is ridiculous, or this is the lock of the year, etc, and the game goes down and averyone is saying how they cant beleive it yada yada, well the sportsbook may have set that game up and are laughing all the way to the bank. It is these situations I like to look for in a line. I want to be on the side of the sportsbook, becuase they always win.

whipsaw · #10 09-30-2005, 01:31 PM

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I have heard and i honestly do not know if it is true or not but i have heard that the casinos communicate with one another and will select certain games to bait the public to make money for the books. Like i said i dont know if it true but why wouldn't they? I would if i owned a sportsbook.

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And you'd be going to jail for it, too. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]