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#22
09-20-2005, 09:28 PM
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Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
[ QUOTE ]
i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened? [/ QUOTE ] You really think he's raising A3 on the river? C'mon. 
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#23
09-20-2005, 09:28 PM
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Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened? [/ QUOTE ] he had quads. [/ QUOTE ] play on bad beat jackpot tables next time [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] that is sick. that wouldn't even qualify for the BBJ though
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#24
09-20-2005, 09:29 PM
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Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened? [/ QUOTE ] You really think he's raising A3 on the river? C'mon. [/ QUOTE ] or 44 for that matter
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#25
09-20-2005, 10:36 PM
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Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened? [/ QUOTE ] he had quads. [/ QUOTE ] play on bad beat jackpot tables next time [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] that is sick. that wouldn't even qualify for the BBJ though [/ QUOTE ] oh yeah, lol.
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#27
09-21-2005, 06:16 AM
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Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
He either has 44 or 55. He has 3 ways of holding 44 and 1 way of holding 55. I think he'd play them both the same with an AF of 2. but see below. He will more likely cap a 3 bet only if he has quads because he'd fear you holding a 5X or 22 hand. So yes, I 3-bet and call a cap because it's more likely he holds 44. The penalty is worse if he holds 55.
If I can put him on 44 or 55 P(44) = 0.75 P(55) = 0.25, how many river bets in excess of the one he's called might I win? <font color="red"> 3-betting </font> Let's say he caps here with 44 50% of the time cuz he's aggressive but not stupid. 44: you win 3 BB 50% of the time and 1 BB 50% of the time. So you win average of 2BB when he holds 44 which is 75% of the time. <font color="blue"> +1.5 BB </font> 55: he caps 100%, you lose 3 BB all of the time @ 25%. <font color="blue"> -.75 BB </font> 3 betting has a net expectation of +.75 BB <font color="red"> just calling </font> 44: you win 1 BB <font color="blue"> +0.75BB </font> 55: you lose 1BB <font color="blue"> -0.25 BB </font> calling has a net expectation of +.5 BB Buuuut, if you think his river raise means he's more likely to hold 55 rather than 44, say with 50/50 likelihood the numbers go : 3-bet with him holding 44 : +1BB 3-bet with him holding 55 : -1.5BB call with him holding 44 : +0.5 BB call with him holding 55 : -0.5 BB So I guess, if you can put him on 44 or 55 (I totally rule out A3 when he raises the river) and you think his river raise makes it a bit more likely he holds 55 rather than 44, I think you should call. uber-caveat : This situation happens so infrequently I don't think it's worth worrying about though (despite this post pretending otherwise) [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] but probably the principle applies for lesser hands eg set over set, frush over frush...
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#28
09-21-2005, 10:35 AM
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Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
Seems like opponent's most likely hands are 44-55. There are 3 ways he could have 44 and 1 way he could have 55. But he might have slowed down at some point with 44. So let's say at this point he is 50% 44, 30% 55, and 20% something else. "Something else" might be a very aggressively played A5s or JJ for instance.
I think it's a raise, but I think it's very close. If you take my numbers, you are going to lose 1 bets 70% of the time, and win 1-2 bets 30% of the time. But winning 2 bets with a reraise is a realistic possibility, versus A5s for instace. Because of the chance of winning 2 bets, I think it's a reraise. But it's close.
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