AA party 2/4

[wtfsvi]

I bet the turn if the turn is the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but I'm not sure if everyone agrees.

Betting the turn when the 9 pairs is a risky proposition. A solid player will just fold his draw most of the time when you bet, but you'll get him bluff very often when he misses the river and you checked behind on the turn. And when he doesn't fold the draw, he probably gets aggressive and forces you to make a tough decision.

This way, it's not even certain betting the turn is best if he does have a draw. Add in the times he has you beat and the times he has a made hand that will fold to a turn bet but call a river bet after the turn got checked through, and checking should be clearly superior.

[xorbie]

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Check behind, call river.

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Thought about checking behind, and I do it a lot. All the draws convinced me to bet. In my mind it's pretty close, no?

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What draws? There's a flush draw, that's about it, unless this guy is calling raises with QT or T8. The fact that the board paired means anyone with a J only has two outs, so you don't even have to worry about some sort of two pair on the river. On top of that, this guy is lag and views you as lag. He'll bet the river often with missed draws to get you to fold A high, and he might also make a big move on this turn with or without a 9.

[emil3000]

I called. He had QJ, and I won. In my opinion, this betting pattern doesn't look like a full house. It's sorta odd for a 9 as well, but that was what I was mostly worrying about. The timing issue weighted my decision a bit, and also the fact that I felt like he wanted to take a stand against me made me call.

I am not sure if I am right or not wtih regards to betting the turn but consider this: if you call a slightly less than pot sized bet on the flop with a flush draw that is 2:1 to get there, and you get to see the river for free, that's a good gamble for you. Factor in the implied odds of the overpair calling a bet on the end, and you have a really nice situation. I don't like giving nice situations to my opponents. If they want to draw, it's gonna cost them. There are certainly times to check behind, but you have to at least give serious consideration to betting on this board. And yes, people do call raises with T8 and QT, so a straight draw is possible.

[wtfsvi]

If he will bet when he doesn't hit the flush as well as when he hits it, it's not a good gamble for him. If he won't bluff when he misses, I agree with betting the turn.

[BobboFitos]

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Check behind, call river.

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im pretty late on this thread, noticed it from the digest, but this isn't a good time for pot control


whether to call the c/r is completely opponent dependant, but given it's 5handed and it's party calling is fine.

[wtfsvi]

Wow. Why?

Rock my world bobbo.

[xorbie]

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Check behind, call river.

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im pretty late on this thread, noticed it from the digest, but this isn't a good time for pot control


whether to call the c/r is completely opponent dependant, but given it's 5handed and it's party calling is fine.

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No, I totally agree with you generally. But if I don't know an opponent well enough to be comfortable getting all in here (and I often am), I'm checking behind this turn almost always. That doesn't mean I'm not raising the river a lot, but I'm checking behind here often.

[BobboFitos]

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Wow. Why?

Rock my world bobbo.

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wtf! svi, you rock my world.

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but this isn't a good time for pot contro

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Ok -

it breaks down like this. This is a moderate to heavy drawing flop. there are alot of possibilities for villain to take one off; the pot bet, as well, is perfect. (40 close enough to 45)

If it was rainbow you could make a clearer case for a turn check, but in this spot, hand protection + value comes to the core. 5handed turning every hand thats not top set into bluffcatchers and small pot hands is only effective if you're in a drunk LAG game where people throw barrells of money at you.

Villain claims he's "sLAA," (by the way, never good to be at a table full of people using PT acronyms, i think) so he could be taking one off with a wide range of hands.

Some hands we're not too concerned with that villain may think are stronger on the flop: KQ, KT, A9, A4, 87 pretyt unlikely any of those check call that big a bet, but KQ may think overs are live and KT may think king is live, A9 or A4 may think you'll shut down with anything that cant beat tp. fine. it would take a real fish to check call 78 there but while establishing equities against always nice considering those types of hands.

others which have considerable more equity; Qt, t8, XX [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

hands which on the flop villain may feel are even money or even ahead: Ax[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] QT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], KT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],A4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (big draw), etc.

few hands we're losing to on flop: J9, 99, 44. JJ LIKELY (although not always, 5handed i'd assume in a slightly overaggro game) makes itself known pf. J4 and 94 i dont consider.

hands which villain may think are best but really arent: AJ, Jx for that matter, underpair, taking a flier with a hand like A9 etc.

Ok, great. so we get to the turn and villain checks. this same betting rhythmn probably happens to everyone here thousands of times. (or for those who play under a thousand hands a day or week or whatnot, hundreds of times)

What we know is we raised preflop, he called, one other guy called. We potted a draw heavy board when checked to us, and villain called. ~abstrating a read, like villain always leads with sets, or always checkraises top pair, or whatnot, it's very tough to eliminate hands~ we can eliminate hands like A5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or things like that which have no business being in the hand.

But on the turn, he checks again, alot of the time the PFR has nothing. oftentimes the pfr will check here with AK or worse or maybe better, like AJ (i'd bet AJ here, too) and call a bet on the end, and with worse hands, fold to a bet on the end. so we see that dance so to speak rehearsed many times over.

so this all begs the question why is this such a clear bet, especially with the 9 turning, making a potential (although unlikely) hand like A9 winning. well, for one, it does lower the probability of seeing 99 or 9x, heh. Always fun. You pick up more outs vs 44.

But really, alot of hands which WILL call a bet, like flush draw, straight draw, or both, make them make a mistake. beauty of 5handed play is you set up opponents like this from when yo usit down (or maybe im the only one) I dont set up raising alot p f in order to win a flop bet and hopefully a river bet out of a busted QT or overplayed KJ. I bet and make them move on a draw or a weaker pair (or oddly played KK, for example) or calldown w/ 2 outs (like QJ) or w/ 8 to 15 or so.

Alot of potential hands, few of which are beating you, will call a bet, and they will be making a mistake. Rather then let them make the mistake on the river, where your potential ear nis lower, make them make the mistake now.

In addition, by checking here, hands which WOULDNT call a bet, but are live (even the KQ example) have an "equity share" of the pot. The pot is 120 or so now, why give up 10% to a 4 outer? thats 3bbs. I dont know about you, but i want whats mine. if T8 folds to a bet, its still better to bet then give up 8 outs, or roughly 20%, or 20 dollars (5 bbs).

The reason it's more a bet here then if the board was rainbow, also, is a bulk of the hands which can call a flop bet are still "drawing," whereas on a rainbow board (dry board) it's more likely you're being trapped. hand protection is less important then stack commitedness. betting pot on a drawless board then getting bounced in is likely a fold, but the first mistake was the bet.

ANYWAY, there are boards to control the pot size, and then there are situations where whether you'll be c/r or not doesnt matter, you need to worr yabout the initial bet.


FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, once you get c/r, it's time to reevaluate the situation, player, and odds. 5handed vs this type esp. when top pair and underpairs/overpairs have just 5% equity and 99 is now so unliekly it's very often a call. sometimes do you lose to J9 or 44? sure, but it's deifnately a profitable call especially dead money in the pot.

also, i would probably fire a 2nd barrel herre with AK, obviously folding to a c/r though. if my opponent would reraise (especially image) QQ+ i would bet/call with AJ, too. sometimes do I get trapped? sure. do i catch people with 2outers? most of the time, yes.

this was a little long, but the principle behind pot control is more often the "if this pot gets real big, i just cant see how i can win unless im playing poker with forrest gump," but this board given so many draws -> and subsequent hand protection (and opponent perhaps viewing THEIR move as hand protection) its bet bet bet.

[GrunchCan]

Ok, I think I understand most of what you've said, but I don't understand this:

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FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, once you get c/r, it's time to reevaluate the situation, player, and odds. 5handed vs this type esp. when top pair and underpairs/overpairs have just 5% equity and 99 is now so unliekly it's very often a call. sometimes do you lose to J9 or 44? sure, but it's deifnately a profitable call especially dead money in the pot.

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Are you saying we should fold?

Also, you refer to dead money, but the pot is heads-up. Are you speaking hypothetically, like, "If there were more opponents who will call, there would be dead money in the pot and we have a clear call?" Or should we call now becasue heads-up we have dead money? If so, what dead money?

[BobboFitos]

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Ok, I think I understand most of what you've said, but I don't understand this:

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FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, once you get c/r, it's time to reevaluate the situation, player, and odds. 5handed vs this type esp. when top pair and underpairs/overpairs have just 5% equity and 99 is now so unliekly it's very often a call. sometimes do you lose to J9 or 44? sure, but it's deifnately a profitable call especially dead money in the pot.

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Are you saying we should fold?

Also, you refer to dead money, but the pot is heads-up. Are you speaking hypothetically, like, "If there were more opponents who will call, there would be dead money in the pot and we have a clear call?" Or should we call now becasue heads-up we have dead money? If so, what dead money?

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No, it's a call. And by dead money i mean extra money in the pot, (the "dead" money being your overlay) so even though we may not expect to win 50% of time ("even" money) the fact we are getting a much better price means we dont need to win even close to that to make the call pos ev.

PLUS, you may even have the best hand ~50%+ anyway!

Your question, what dead money, meaning how much in the pot relative to the bet, is an expert question and the beauty of poker. If you're able to determine correct frequencies you win and everyone else loses.