Priced In

[Georgia Avenue]

I have mucho trouble figuring out my hand's value when small stacks move in on me...Here's an example:

300 buyin Saturday night at the Taj. Blinds 300-600 50 ante, about to move to 500-1000.

I have t15000, been card dead for a hour, which I hope looks like tightness. LMP, I (foolishly) attempt a steal w/ t7x: 2200. Button pushs for 1800 more.

So 1800 to win 5150, right…?

I…Call? He’s pretty tight but my read on him is “please don’t call”. I’ve shown down some less than premium hands tho’ so he could be hoping to double though with his borderline hand.


I have another dumb question about the same tourney, but I’ll work on one leak at a time…

Thanks.

Obvious call no matter what your cards are. You're getting almost 3:1 pot odds.

[ QUOTE ]
I have t1500

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean you have 15000, and not 1500? Or, was it a different number you had missed?

[Georgia Avenue]

Yup. Sorry, edited original post for future un-confusion.

[Chief911]

Assuming a stack of 15k, this is a pretty easy call getting the odds you are.

Nick

[Ross]

I do not know whether if not telling us your hand was intentional but it does make it an interesting problem.

Okay one way of looking at this is that AA v 72 off is about 7/1 pre-flop so if the pot is offering better than 7/1 then your hand is irrelevant so is your opponents.

Anything less than that then you need to think about what your opponent has and how likely are you to outdraw him assuming that there is no chance you have the best hand. The pot is offering a little bit less than 3/1. If he has a big pair (jacks or better) in most instances you will not be getting anything close to pot odds best case scenario is about 3/1 for suited 65 against AA. However if he makes the move with any 2 big cards any low pair is a 50:50 shot which represents value low or middle suited connectors are around 6/4 again value. The decision is all about the likely range your opponent has there needs to be enough 50:50 & 60:40 shots to compensate for the situations you are a big dog.

The guy is under pressure from the blinds so the range might be big enough but he is not the 1st to act so he must have some strength as he cannot rule out a value call from you, if he is a generally solid player I think this is just a fold. Otherwise with a loose action player who has one eye on a cash game that has just started up it’s a call.

Regards

Ross

[Ross]

Oh hell did'nt see the T7 off in the orginal post, detail was never my strong point. Balance of probabilites now definite fold against solid citizen (who could be sweating on A10)Call against loose player in a rush to be someplace else.

regards

Ross

[Georgia Avenue]

Thanks Ross, this was a very thoughtful response to a much better question than mine. I did say I rasied "w/ t7x" but that should be: 10-7 offsuit. I'll change the orginal question again to read better (can you tell this is my first legitimate question in MTT?)

It turns out that he had K9x and I was a medium dog. Nothing happened on any street and k high was good.

From what I'm hearing from y'all it was a pretty obvious call. The guy wasn't that solid, just tight, and I'm pretty sure he didn't know I was priced in. In fact, he proved it by saying: "Man I can't belive you called that!" a couple of times after he won. Why he was steaming from doubling up I dunno...

[Georgia Avenue]

So here's my other hand from this tourney, the next hand I played in fact, about 30 minutes later. I've been dead, I mean super dead since then, and the big stacks are giving me ZERO opportunities to steal or push with q high or something. I’ve bled down to t4200. Blind 500-1000 with a 100 ante (yeah the Taj is brutal.)

I’m in the BB and the other short stack pushes in second pos. Folded to me. He’s definitely a good player, so even tho’ he’s short, he’s gotta have a bit of something…

He’s got me only slightly covered. I’m sure he expects me to call, in fact, he’s encouraging me to do so, before I look at my hand. Grrr. I find Q9spades.

(Correct me if I’m wrong.) 3100 to win 5300 (we’re 7 handed). I know I’m beat, maybe dominated. Very close to the next increase, and we become 10 handed on the next deal.

Any thoughts?

[bruce]

You play way TOO tightly if you play so few hands. Find opportunities where you can initiate the action with a push.
I'm sure there were spots where you could have been the first one to push against tight blinds. In these spots I don't care what my cards are. If you run into a monster so be it. You're going to blinds out anyway with your style of play. You can't win a tournament playing like this.

Obviously first hand with 3:1 odds it's a no brainer call.
Second hand is more tricky. You might be dominated and if
you fold you still do have some chips. Suffice it to say,
the second hand is close. I'm too lazy to figure out the math, but you should have never gotten yourself in this spot to begin with.

Bruce