($60) 5-handed, shopping for some blinds w/KQo

[tigerite]

I could try with 550 but I think that the raising to 550 wouldn't be as +$EV as to 500, because you would have less when you fold to a push, but the fold at the end would still be a fold.

[OrcaDK]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok let us assume that SB will only re-raise all-in with TT+, AK+ (probably too tight - but it'll do for a starting point) and that BB will do so with 88+, AQ+.

Now we hold KQo so

88,99,TT,JJ,AA 6 ways
QQ 3 ways
KK 3 ways
AK 4*3 ways = 12 ways
AQ 4*3 ways = 12 ways

So

R 500, Rr/F SB 0.2111 ( (24 + 12) / 1225 ) = 0.029%
R 500, Rr/F BB 0.2034 ( (36 + 24) / 1225 ) = 0.049 * (1 - 0.029) = 0.04754%
R 500, Both F 0.2541 ( (1-0.029) * (1-0.04754) of time ) = 0.924469%

Thus if we always fold to a push from either (SB is a no brainer) then

(0.2541 * 0.924469) + (0.2034 * 0.04754) + (0.2111 * 0.029) = 0.2349 + 0.00967 + 0.00620 = 0.2508

.. which is obviously a lot more than 0.2316. So the raise, we can say for certain, is correct.

Now if he really is re-raising with 88+,AQ+ we should obviously fold KQo here. Our equity is only 0.311366 against this range..

Fold 0.2034
Call/Win 0.3296
Call/Lose 0.1193

(0.3296 * 0.311366) + (0.1193 * 0.688634) = 0.1026262336 + 0.0821540362

= 0.1847802698 which is way less than 0.2034, definite fold.

All interesting stuff..

[/ QUOTE ]

Will you marry me? Nh!

[45suited]

Nice work tigerite. The point of my post was that it wasn't an auto-fold because of the pot odds, clearly you've shown that it is. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[bennies]

Very nice work.

I do feel the ranges are too tight though, a raise to 500 from the button is not very scary, I imagine the BB will play hands as weak as 55, 76s, A8 and KJ.

He probably won't push all these hands though, but maybe something like 66+, KQ, A9+ ?

[bennies]

Against 66+, KQ, A9+ Hero wins 37.2% of the time.

[tigerite]

Are ya kidding? When in his post he says "Seat 3: Solid player. Pretty tight throughout, taking his shots in position. Getting doubled up earlier with Aces."? He's really going to re-raise you all in with 66+, A9+, KQo+? With 8BB left? I don't agree.. the SB's range will be looser but most of the hands he will call, which is just really hard to calculate by ICM anyway, as you have to then worry about flop etc yada yada.

[bennies]

eeeh, thanks for taking the time, somehow I thought BB was the loose one

[tigerite]

Oh no, for sure if the BB was the loose one, I'd have put like top 12% at least for the re-raise all-in. Blue's image is also important here in the eyes of the solid BB. I think his range for re-push here would be really quite tight. I might consider AJs and just the slim chance of 77 in there, but much more than that.. it's stretching it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]