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#21
12-07-2005, 02:51 PM
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Re: (LC) $109 ITM - what would you need to call here?
After reading I have questioned whether it is right to call with AK or JJ. This is because if you fold, you'll have 2600/7400 and I think you'll win 1/4 of the time (maybe you don't agree with that, i'm just ballparking). So let's say you call with JJ and have ~60% equity in the pot because they had Ax and 55 or something. This means that you win the tourney 60% of the time, receiving $500. The other 40% you're out because you are the short stack and get $200. This gives you ~$380 expected value by calling if I calculated it correctly. If you fold, you get $300 3/4ths of the time and $500 1/4th of the time. This gives you $350 of expected value by folding.
If you take into account that sometimes one of them has 2 overs to your JJ, and occasionally they have QQ+, I think it's pretty close. AK is a definite fold because it is only 35% against our example Ax and 66 and has an expected value of around $300. I would probably call with JJ because gambling is fun and fold AK (even though I would hate folding it). If anyone finds anything wrong in my calculations, feel free to tear them apart. 
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#23
12-07-2005, 03:37 PM
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Re: (LC) $109 ITM - what would you need to call here?
[ QUOTE ]
Without reading the responses I would call with AK, JJ+. I would call with AK because people seem to overvalue Ax with 9BBs in this situation. I think the button's range is KT+, Ax, 22+. The SBs calling range (if he's a typical 109 player) is probably KQ, Ax, 44+. [/ QUOTE ] Good post. Count me in.
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#24
12-07-2005, 03:40 PM
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Re: (LC) $109 ITM - what would you need to call here?
[ QUOTE ]
After reading I have questioned whether it is right to call with AK or JJ. This is because if you fold, you'll have 2600/7400 and I think you'll win 1/4 of the time (maybe you don't agree with that, i'm just ballparking). So let's say you call with JJ and have ~60% equity in the pot because they had Ax and 55 or something. This means that you win the tourney 60% of the time, receiving $500. The other 40% you're out because you are the short stack and get $200. This gives you ~$380 expected value by calling if I calculated it correctly. If you fold, you get $300 3/4ths of the time and $500 1/4th of the time. This gives you $350 of expected value by folding. If you take into account that sometimes one of them has 2 overs to your JJ, and occasionally they have QQ+, I think it's pretty close. AK is a definite fold because it is only 35% against our example Ax and 66 and has an expected value of around $300. I would probably call with JJ because gambling is fun and fold AK (even though I would hate folding it). If anyone finds anything wrong in my calculations, feel free to tear them apart. [/ QUOTE ] Better post. Count me out.
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#26
12-07-2005, 04:00 PM
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Re: (LC) $109 ITM - what would you need to call here?
If I stopped and took some time to think about it, I'd probably call with JJ+, though it looks like JJ might be a mistake against a lot of players here.
Very helpful post though because this is a situation where it would be easy to make a big mistake.
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