($25NL): Set facing big bet on the end.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
I was expecting to see QT, but I thought what the hell, if they called a pot sized bet for a gut shot I'll pay them off.

[/ QUOTE ]

When no one bet the flop, villian would have to see his Q and T as outs as well. It's semi-reasonable for him to call your flop bet with QT.

I also play NL 25 and like stated above the players there can be pretty bad, but there are two extremes at this level...

One is a person who will bet large when they have something they think is the nuts, like two pair or TPTK (these are the people who pay off your sets) the other is a person that plays passive till they make a legitimate hand and then tell you plainly that you're beat by betting out rather than check/calling.

Spotting these two types and using this info are the best reads you can make at these levels.

So which type is the villain?

[wdeadwyler]

This is CLEARLY a please call me push, whether he thinks two pair is good or not is another issue.

As for his range, lets discount 4j, 49, 4k, even morons can fold those utg. So now we have j9, kj, k9, 44, 99, jj, kk, q10.

Another posted said q10 was unlikely, I disagree, I think it is VERY likely, as is KK. He is clearly on a "slowplay"

I think KJ is very unlikely, as we woulda of heard from him earlier, ESP if he raises two pair on the river like this. K9 is a remote possibility, but I would expect some turn action.

So now, I think his most likely holdings (in order of probability) are

q10>kk>j9>jj=99=44, followed by K9>KJ remotely.

I poker stoved this range and got

Board: 9c Kc 4d 2h Jd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.1304 % 39.13% 00.00% { 2d2s }
Hand 2: 60.8696 % 60.87% 00.00% { KK, JJ, 99, 44, K9s, QTs, J9s, K9o, QTo, J9o }

If we add, KJs, kj our equity is now 49%. However, as I said before, I think KJ is unlikely, and q10 and KK are very likely, if this is the case, our equity is below 39%. I think a fold is in order.

Edit: I am well aware of the atrocious play at 25nl, but if you look at his actions from a (SEMI) logical standpoit, my analysis makes sense. I have not included bluffing in my range, and I dont know how to do that. I dunno if he bluffs often here though.

I don't believe KK or JJ are in villain's range, and I don't see how you can claim KK is very likely.

If villain is bad enough to play KK that way, then villain is bad enough to limp with J4

[wdeadwyler]

Villain limps UTG looking to Limp raise, donks do this all the time with kk.
Lets look at it from villains perspective
He flops the nuts and thinks, lets let someone catch up so I can win a big pot. His opponent bet the turn, so q10 is unlikely. Now river comes, BAM bet you didnt see that coming.
OR
JJ limps utg preflop all the time, whether cuz he is playing scared or looking for reraise. He logically checks flop, then hero bets an innocuous turn card, so villain calls. BAM, hits his set and raises big, bet you didnt see that coming.

Edit: Limping j4o utg is unreasonable here, maybe j4s. I will concede we can include j4s in his range, and actually it can be a likely holding, but this still brings me to my point, when villain raises the river HUGE, the big hands like sets and str8s become much more likely, unless we REALLY think villain will do this with 2 pair a significant portion of the time (I dont).

FYI I would never fold this in the heat of the moment, but I think analyzing it after the fact shows a fold is in order. If villain is this big a donk, lets not risk our stack on a decision this close, lets wait til we have him cynched.

[xJMPx]

Thanks for all the comments. I’m glad to see a mixture of opinions to insure me that this wasn’t an easy decision.

PartyPoker - $25 NL Texas - 10 players (Converter: PGC)

Starting Balances:
Button: $26.1
<font color="red">Hero: $25.65</font>
BB: $72
UTG: $27.1
UTG+1: $6.99
MP1: $23.55
MP2: $25
MP3: $21.27
LP1: $27.8
CO: $24.15

Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

PreFlop
MP2 posts BB
<font color="green">UTG Calls</font>, <font color="blue">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="blue">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="green">MP2 checks</font>, <font color="blue">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="blue">LP1 folds</font>, <font color="blue">CO folds</font>, <font color="blue">Button folds</font>
<font color="green">Hero Calls</font>, <font color="green">BB checks</font>

(4 players) FLOP: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $1 )
<font color="green">Hero checks</font>, <font color="green">BB checks</font>, <font color="green">UTG checks</font>, <font color="green">MP2 checks</font>

(4 players) TURN: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $1 )
<font color="red">Hero BETS ($1)</font>, <font color="blue">BB folds</font>, <font color="green">UTG Calls</font>, <font color="blue">MP2 folds</font>

(2 players) RIVER: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: $3 )
<font color="red">Hero BETS ($2)</font>, <font color="red">UTG RAISES ($15)</font>
<font color="green">Hero Calls</font>

Final Pot: $33

Results:
UTG shows:JsJh,three of a kind, jacks
SB shows:2s2d,three of a kind, twos

Is there a reason he bet so much on the end? wtf is going on? This is why I feel like I should play at least 100NL, because I feel like calling the river is fine (because who would raise to $15 with top set, nut straight, or even second set?).

/me really confused