Can someone tell me - Page 2

Shillx · #11 11-09-2005, 06:16 AM

There is roughly a 50% chance that you will have a 120 BB downswing in any given 14000 hand period. This assumes that you are breakeven and have an SD of 15 bb/100.

detruncate · #12 11-09-2005, 06:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There is roughly a 50% chance that you will have a 120 BB downswing in any given 14000 hand period.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad to see that I overachieve in at least one poker-related area.

Hope you enjoyed your trip.

ajm36 · #13 11-09-2005, 08:06 AM

4- tabling .5/1 approx. 5 hours/day=1 100+BB downswing every 3-4 weeks for me. I am really, really bad though.

RatFink · #14 11-09-2005, 11:06 AM

Having a roll of 500BB and enduring a downswing of 120BB is one thing.

Having a roll of precisely 120BB means if you downswing 50BB (quite easy to occur) you are probably going to lose the rest. You will play more scared with your last few buy-ins, and then you won't even have full buy-ins and you will then take one final stab at a level above your limits to get it all back and then your friends will tell you I told you so.

Compound that with the fact that if you have a 20BB upswing you'll be cashing it out to buy booze and it's not exactly a recipe for printing money.

Look at it this way. You have 120BB. You play 100 hands and you win 20BB and cash it out, you still have 120BB. Then you play another 100 hands and lose 18BB and are at 102BB. You feel bad. You had a win rate of 1BB/100 and should be at 122BB but you cashed out 20BB of it and would have shown a 1BB/100 win rate. Cashing out the "profits" before they are actually realized over time is likely to cause a spiraling downswing that isn't really a downswing but just bad bankroll management.