Q7o flops a set, meets resistance

Cumulonimbus · #1 10-19-2005, 07:45 PM

Villian is 19/1/.55 over 126 hands. What to do, what to do?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Nimbus is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Nimbus completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
Nimbus bets, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds.

Turn: (4 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Nimbus bets, MP1 raises, Nimbus...

Nick Royale · #2 10-19-2005, 07:56 PM

Fold preflop. Given his stats I think you should just call down.

Cumulonimbus · #3 10-19-2005, 07:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. Given his stats I think you should just call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. Yeah I think I thought they were suited. I'm still getting used to 8-tabling.

And what about his stats? Did you see his .55 aggression rating? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

toss · #4 10-19-2005, 07:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your location speaks the truth. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Seriously its like 11:1 we're getting.

toss · #5 10-19-2005, 08:02 PM

I think villain will be raising the turn here with a worse 7 enough times to make calling down profitable.

Nick Royale · #6 10-19-2005, 08:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. Given his stats I think you should just call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. Yeah I think I thought they were suited. I'm still getting used to 8-tabling.

And what about his stats? Did you see his .55 aggression rating? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Oh, i thought you were considering 3-betting. If he actually has the flush you need to call because you have 10 outs. He'll also be slowplaying a worse 7 sometimes. He's definately not holding A7/K7/33 often enough for you to fold. (you have outs enough against 22 also)

Nick Royale · #7 10-19-2005, 08:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your location speaks the truth. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
lol, I know

#8 10-19-2005, 08:51 PM

I bet the flop on these as well, because I hate to see them checked through. I bet for value on these hoping for calls from overpairs and overcards.

With villains PFR%, I could put him on many over pairs such as 88-AA, but his aggression numbers suggest weak post-flop play and suggest that he would not often reraise with the 3rd club showing. So I would expect an A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 10 combos that have you drawing to 10 outs. With Villains post-flop aggression number I would not expect to see a semi-bluff raise with a backdoor flush draw, but that is possible. I think 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is probably unlikely given VPIP.

I call the turn and check/call the river UI. I see no fold equity or value in re-raising considering the likely holdings. I think that the possibility of overpairs and your 10 outs give you enough odds to call down.