AQo - river decision

[Cumulonimbus]

Villian is 14/5/1.33 over 37 hands. It seems to me like he knew one of us hit the Ace on the turn, so he planned a CR with his two-pair/set. The river flush card made my decision even harder. Agh.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Nimbus is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Nimbus 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, MP2 calls, Nimbus calls.

Turn: (7 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Nimbus bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, MP2 folds, Nimbus calls.

River: (11 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Nimbus...

[newhizzle]

i call expecting to lose, i think your good 1 out of 12 times here

i fold the turn alot against an opponent like this. you are drawing to at most 5 outs here, and a significant portion of the time you are drawing dead. if you call the turn you probably have to pay off on the river, even though it's close.