AK vs 2 All-ins

[Copernicus]

I can't decide what I should have done here:

Late in $100+9 NLHE tourney, 18 left out of 160 or so. Everyone is in the money, but bottom 9 get the buy-in back plus some nuisance compensation.

I'm in 3rd at my table, around 6th or 7th overall with 27K. The top stacks at my table are around 40K and the top stack overall is about 50K. Structure is 1k/2k blinds and 100 ante, and I'm the BB.

Once everyone was in the money the character of the table changed from tight/aggressive to pretty much "all-in or fold".

Action goes Fold, Fold, all-in for 13K, call (with 17K before, 4K after call), all Fold to me with AKo with 11K to call and 4 more at risk.

I take a time out and figure that if Im up against 2 lower pair I'm about a 3/1 dog (I have to win 2 coin flips), if its a lower pair plus either my A or K (but not both) is duplicated by the other one its about 2/1 against me (3/4 vs duplicator and a coin flip vs the pair), if there is another AK we kill outs for each other and split the ones we do win, which should be ugly, vs AA and a lower pair Im done for and vs KK and a lower pair Im maybe 4/1 dog (7/3 vs the KK, reduced by the set possibilities for the lower pair. Offsetting this is the possiblity of slightly more than doubling up and moving into first place, knocking out 2 of the 18 and getting closer to real money, and the fact that I have 10k left (although close to bottom stack) if I lose.

Running out of time I.....

What do you do?

My decision, actual odds vs the above estimates, and results later.

Thanks.

[trillig]

I'd fold, let them assassinate each other rather than risk one with pair and other with your cards or close giving you less outs and bad odds like it looks like you surmized already....

At your stage, I'd let all the ALL-IN happy folks have at it for a while.

I blew it the other night and went out 16th when if I had played tight with over 100k in chips, I could have easily made final table where the money was a tiny bit better, mind you this was a cheapo tourney with 893 people in it.

-t

[fnurt]

Against 2 lower pairs you don't have to win 2 coin flips, you just have to hit your A or K just as if you were up against one lower pair.

Of course the presence of the lower pair means there are an extra 2 cards in the deck that can beat you, but that person is mostly dead money, since they pretty much always lose unless they hit one of those 2 cards.

It's obviously risky to call here. Then again, if you're up against two lower pairs you win 1/3 of the time. If you're up against one lower pair and one hand you dominate like AQ you still win 1/3 of the time (because the dominated hand also eats up one of your outs). But it's not that hard to believe you might have both hands dominated which would be huge +EV, and unless one of the hands is AA or KK you're not going to be -EV. So I think a call can be defended here, although I doubt I would do it.

[Bozeman]

Despite the fact that you can be 3:2 dog for 2:1 money (against 2 low pairs not in your suits), I think this is a good place to fold. You will have trouble making the final table if you lose, but not if you fold. Even without aa, kk or ak, you could have < 5% money edge. One of those times to avoid a close gamble. And if you are wrong about noone having aa, kk, or ak, you go from a slight favorite to a big dog.

Craig

[Copernicus]

fnurt knows his odds. Against 2 lower pair AK wins about 36% (I used Qs and 7s). Against a lower pair and AQ it wins right on 33%. fnurt also gave mention to the real scenario, which I gave short shrift to.

I folded, and the other hands were KK and KTs. Because all of the Ks are out the KK dominates the scenario, making the AK a 30% winner. Since most of the scenarios give AK between 30 and 37% and its getting around 2/1 it is a borderline call, a 3 sided coin toss.

Of course the flop was A9x, turn a 9 and the river a blank, so my AA99 beats KK99 and 99.