Small pocket pair on a raggedy flop

BlackAces · #1 02-03-2005, 11:23 AM

Stars 5+.50 with rebuys last night. I'm about 30th in chips out of just under 200 at this point. Top 63 get paid. Big stack has been getting some monsters and getting paid off.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 (t19970)
MP1 (t17820)
MP2 (t27595)
MP3 (t76949)
CO (t20790)
Button (t30580)
SB (t23920)
Hero (t33315)
UTG (t3760)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises to t1600, 1 fold, MP3 calls t1600, 3 folds, Hero calls t800.

Pretty standard call here, I think. The flop was interesting, though:

Flop: (t4400) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets t6400,

My thinking was that there was a good chance this flop didn't hit anybody. Should I have bet out here, and if so, was my actual bet a good size or too large?

MP1 raises to t16170,

I'm now getting approximately 3:1 on a call. Is a call worth it in this situation?

Lloyd · #2 02-03-2005, 01:07 PM

What you're talking about is a probing bet and is very useful when you are first to act (or checked to you on the flop) and you think the flop missed your opponents. It is most effective against a single opponent since there is an increased liklihood that it did hit someone with more people in the pot. Against two opponents, with this type of flop, it's certainly worth a shot.

The appropriate size of a probing bet is around half the pot. In this case about 2200. You WAY overbet the pot (4400) with your bet of 6400. Unless you or your opponents are pot committed, there is rarely a reason why you would bet such a large amount, especially with a middle pair. A half pot size bet is large enough to chase away speculative hands that missed the flop, and charge draws enough that they aren't getting odds to call (for example, with two overcards they are about a 6.6 to 1 dog to hit a pair on the turn and you are offering them 3 to 1 odds).

Now if you only bet 2200 versus 6400, your opponent's raise would be offering you far worse than 3 to 1 odds. Regardless, you are most likely behind at this point and would have to hit a set to win. You're about an 11 to 1 dog to hit your set on the turn or river. Even accounting for the chance that he has overs and you're ahead, I don't think you're getting good enough odds to call and put your tournament on the line.

I would fold.

tiger7210 · #3 02-03-2005, 02:01 PM

With your stack size and his I would definitely fold here. He raised before the flop with what could certainly be a pair bigger than 55's and even if he has AK/AQ/AJs overcards with the flush draw you're still slightly behind. I wouldn't risk 1/2 my chips here on a pair of 55's against a player who has shown strength PF then comes over the top for all his chips.

Lloyd · #4 02-03-2005, 02:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With your stack size and his I would definitely fold here. He raised before the flop with what could certainly be a pair bigger than 55's and even if he has AK/AQ/AJs overcards with the flush draw you're still slightly behind. I wouldn't risk 1/2 my chips here on a pair of 55's against a player who has shown strength PF then comes over the top for all his chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has odds to call pre-flop for set value and if he's up against a big pair and hits his set, he'll get all of his opponents chips. The fact that he's in the BB means he can call the raise and know that it won't be re-raised after him.

How is he risking half of his stack. Just calling the pre-flop raise barely puts a dent into it, and making a small (as I suggested) probing bet isn't anywhere close to half his stack. And certainly if he gets played back at after making the probing bet he'll just fold.

BlackAces · #5 02-03-2005, 04:41 PM

I, of course, did the dumb thing and called. MP turned over JJ, which held up. I went out in 93rd after going all-in with KQ UTG, only to be called by KK and QQ.

The funny thing was, replaying this hand in my head before going to sleep, I could hear Action Dan in my head, saying, "You raised too much." I need to reread the section on probe bets, obviously.

tiger7210 · #6 02-03-2005, 06:26 PM

His PF call there is fine. To call the all in on the flop I think would be a mistake. I also think he way overbet the pot on the flop. He didn't need to make such a strong bet to find out where he stood in the hand.

patrick dicaprio · #7 02-03-2005, 09:02 PM

1. easy call on the flop.

2.the bet on the flop is too big. as happened here if you bet too much and get reraised and have to fold then you lose more. the extra chips arent needed since even a bet of the size of the pot will likely get folders and if a draw is going to call for the size of the pot they will call for the overbet. getting 3-1 and still pretty far from the money plus his short stack i think you have to call here but i am not happy about it. often you see two big cards here. i cant fault a fold here however it is a very close play and in the heat of battle that is probably what i would do in order to save chips if behind with very few outs, which will allow more stealing and pressure on the opponents.

Pat