This was ugly

[brazilio]

I don't think 5/10 or 10/20 would make the difference. Pocket pairs are a minority of holdings, and a value bet need not be 100% winning to be profitable.

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There's nothing ugly on this board. You can't ask for a much better board than this for AK UI. You're value betting, and to charge players with live outs

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Otherwise, total agreement.

[Wynton]

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Pocket pairs are a minority of holdings, and a value bet need not be 100% winning to be profitable.

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If you can expand on this a little, I might just learn something for a change.

If 5 people see an unraised flop, and 2 of them call a flop bet on a board that is not at all drawy, how often do you think at least one of them has a pocket pair at 5/10? I would have guessed the answer is like 85% of the time. Is this estimate too high?

[brazilio]

I'd say that's way too high. Boards like this, people know and expect that their 4-5 outers are good. They know A high is a pretty good hand on this board. If an Ace does drop, there's no domination issues, and their other cards are going to be clean as well. I'd expect much more action on the flop than I got from virtually any pocket pair because they know if you're on overcards, they definitely want you out on the turn if they can.

The math is pretty complicated but as usual, BruceZ clarifies. Probability forum link. The simplified formula posted by Qui-Gon is a more straightforward approximation.

From my perspective, I just go by the basic principle that pocket pairs are fairly unusual (16:1 against any particular playing being dealt it), and adding in the fact that most pairs, 77+ will be raised at whatever shorthanded table you're talking about. So the lack of a preflop raise on a 333 flop is really positive for AK.

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and 2 of them call a flop bet on a board that is not at all drawy

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The call on the flop is going to be unpaired overs and/or stray aces the vast majority of the time. Anybody with a pair will be raising the flop, both to protect his small boat, and to find out how serious you are. The fact that you raised preflop and bet the flop, strongly weighs in favor of betting the turn.

[bobbyi]

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any pair is going to bet after youve checked and youll be forced to call.

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Am I always forced to call? After it went check/bet behind me I was, but if it goes bet/call or (obviously) bet/raise, I can fold and save $20. How often is AK good if it goes bet/call behind me?

[B Dids]

This doesn't feel like AKo unimproved, it's actually a pretty damn good board for AKo.

I bet the river.

[kiddo]

Yes, its a good board. Its really strange that players folded this flop because our overs will almost always be good for a win or a split.

But we are out of position and we have to call if they raise turn, so if they are a bit LAGGY a bet is bad.