10/20 blind defense round 4, part3 - K8o

[ISF]

I cant see not folding this.

folds

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
One more thing. If you are calling this flop you shouldn't be folding if an 8 comes on the turn IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. i do think this is a fold as well, but i think it's closer than most people seem to realize.

[ALL1N]

Just thought I'd make the point that the straight via the backdoor route of a T on the turn is worth no more than about 0.1 of an out, NOT 1. Seriously, don't bother considering it.

[Surfbullet]

Thanks for the input.

It looks close, closer than most think - but still a fold. Hands like this make me think, however...since we autobet any flop with any hand in this situation (save for the rare c/r with a decent pair or whatever) it makes us very vulnerable to an aggressive player who will raise many flops with as little as a backdoor flush draw + backoor str8 draw.

Now I'm not saying that's what this player raises in this particular situation, but it certainly makes one stop and think. This applies even further in a SB vs BB confrontation where flop raises mean so little from an aggressive opponent.

So, we can't just bet-fold every time we miss like this and pot odds dictate we fold - we become very predictable and almost encourage aggressive players to take shots at us HU.

I would peel here with A8 - because a not insignificant amount of the time my hand will be best, and I may get a free card on the turn. I can decide whether I want to call down based on board texture and my opponent's betting history. It also might be worth a peel with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], where our BD flush gives us another chance to win.

These routine hands are easy to dismiss. King-hi, just fold, move on. But it's important to recognize what these types of hands do to our shania, and how accurate the range we put our opponent on is.

Surf

[kiddo]

I did the math just for fun.
Maybe my thinking is wrong?

If a T hits on turn (4/47) we got 8 outs (8/46).

If 9 or A hits turn (8/47) we got 4 outs (4/46).

If we go to showdown we will hit straight (4*8/47*46) + (8/47*4/46) = 1.5% + 1.5% = 3%

[TomBrooks]

Folds. I suspect SB made a pair.

[ALL1N]

I was wrong initially. The backdoor straight is the equivalant of about 0.45 of an out; still much less than most people seem to think. In your calculations, you're running it as if we're allin on the turn. The bet we'll have to pay to draw on the turn must be considered.

If a T hits it allows us to call instead of folding the turn (raising the T would clearly be silly):

We call the turn with what I'll assume is 11 outs (3 K's, 4 A's, 4 9's.. sometimes the 8 will be clean, somtimes the K won't, and sometimes the straight draw will be splitting.. 11 seems generous if anything).

Assuming a pot size of 6: 4.5 + the villain's turn bet + 0.5 implied odds (seems reasonable), the EV of this turn call will be:

EV = (6 + 1) * (11/46) - 1
= 0.67 BB

Since there's 4 T's, the # of outs added by the T is:

Extra outs = (No. of T's) * (EV when T comes) / (Assumed pot size)
= 0.67 * 4 / 6
= .45

Btw, the backdoor straight via an A or 9 coming on the turn needn't really be considered, because hitting either card on the turn sets up a pretty EV-neutral call.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
Since there's 4 T's, the # of outs added by the T is:

Extra outs = (No. of T's) * (EV when T comes) / (Assumed pot size)
= 0.67 * 4 / 6
= .45

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not familiar with this caluculation. Do u mean that if potsize change our number of outs change?

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, the backdoor straight via an A or 9 coming on the turn needn't really be considered, because hitting either card on the turn sets up a pretty EV-neutral call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If pot was bigger it wouldnt be EV-neutral. Do we suddenly have to start to count this as an "out" then?

*

When we start to count outs over multiple streets it always gets complicated. If we are on flop and, for example, got a backdoorflushdraw there is 9/47 we will hit turn and 8/46 we will hit river. We will hit flush about 3.3%. If we hit our flushdraw on turn we sometimes will get a free showdown, sometimes have to pay 1BB and sometimes more. So the real investment we are talking about on flop is the flopcall + sometims turncall. Lets say we are investing 0.6BB and we will hit 3.3%. Then final pot have to be something like 18BB to make a call EV-neutral. (this is if we will win 100% when we hit flush and if we dont include our own riverbets in "final pot")

In SSH they say this kind of flushdraw is worth 1.5 outs when we are on flop. I really dont see how we can say this.

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not familiar with this caluculation. Do u mean that if potsize change our number of outs change?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I mean. Look at the equation as basically a conversion from what the out would be worth if no further bets went in to actuality.

[ QUOTE ]
If pot was bigger it wouldnt be EV-neutral. Do we suddenly have to start to count this as an "out" then?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
In SSH they say this kind of flushdraw is worth 1.5 outs when we are on flop. I really dont see how we can say this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, it's flawed to approximate a backdoor draw to a number of outs without referring to the pot size.