Are these BB fluctuations normal at .25/.50?

[Pylos]

First off, I realize that this sample size is way too small to make any sort of judgments, 5k is pretty statistically insignificant. However, I patrol through these boards quite regularly and have tried to see if anything mirrors the fluctuations I have seen on my overall BB graph. Is my standard deviation within the norm for this level, or am I up and down way too much?

I realize that in the long run, the value for “r,” or correlation, will even out this line into a smooth upward trend. However, I was wondering if it wasn’t normal if there is anything I can do to fix some of my leaks now rather than play this way for the next 5-10k hands at a higher level and just give away all my $. I have finally made enough in bonuses and BB’s to move up to .50/1, which I will be doing within the week.

Thank you for any help you may be able to give me.

[oreogod]

well, u definitly have a lot of swing in your game, thats for sure. Could be just a bad run, but I dont know what your stats are. U could raise more preflop it looks like.

[Webster]

I took a look at my last 4 months play at Party - about 15,000 hands and my SD was about 13BB - yours is 20. However, I play 2/4 and 3/6. so you are a tad high - HOWEVER - I then looked at Crypto and I've been messing around in the micros on a Rake Research project.

With only 400 hands my SD was 17BB so I guess you ARE a little high. Still - at those levels the pot size is enormous compared to higher levels.

From the tiny look of your stats it looks like you are on the right track but you SHOULD be crushing the game – have you had bad luck?

If you are just beginning your poker experience it looks like that 1st 1000 hands was a learning experience, the last 4000 your up 140BBs which is better but still . . . .

I think pre flop is fine - there must be a leak post flop that is happening.

Grinderswarehouse - NOT just another BLOG

[Pylos]

I was really worried about that and didn't think it was a normal SD. I think I have quite a few leaks in my game, and have tried to use posts such as this one to evaluate what problems I may have. Unforunatly I have not been able to put an exact finger on the most of it.

Also, I don't think I'm having a bad run, at least not pre-flop. I see alot of premium and decent hands preflop, but unfortunatly they get broken most of the time. I held on to them early on, but recently have learned not to fall in love with my hand and it has saved me a bit of money in some tight spots.

Anyway, here are my details:

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]

I think pre flop is fine - there must be a leak post flop that is happening.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise more, steal more preflop. There are probably many leaks for a lot of posters at this level...it is definitly where the swing is coming from. But thats nothing to feel bad about...it takes awhile to become profficient in postflop abilities.

[Pylos]

Also, my PFR was at about 5.9% preflop until my last 2k hands where I learned it was way too low. Since then it has jumped up to where it is now, at 7.5 or so, so in the future I think the real rate should be about 8-9%.

I have been using the PFR chart that has been circulating here that derrived from SSH.

[oreogod]

First read this: stats post and try and match most of your stats to that. Ignore the Attempt to Steal stat in that post, its too low...you should be stealing 35-40 percent of the time (of the times when its folded to u in the CO)...yours is at 16 percent. To low.


Get your showdowns up to about 32-35 percent. Raise more preflop...should be at about 10 percent range.

You might be a little overaggressive on the flop. Again though, this is a pretty small sample size.

I think the best thing though, fold more. Also, are u protecting your hands well enough? Lead more on the flop, resist the urge to always check-call to the preflop raiser.

Dont know...is there anything u think is wrong with your play? Do u call down to much, over aggressive?

[oreogod]

After u learn the basics, or I should say, fully understand most of the concepts postflop...learning to expand your preflop range takes work.

read HPFAPs starting hand section, read Weighing the Odds section, besides being one of Ed Millers favorites of the new books that are out...it has one of the best starting hand charts around...it accounts for multiple situations preflop.

This is pretty good as well

If you put in enough time and study...about 6 months-ish after u really study your ass off...you will be in a position where u are looking to expand your game, where u are not looking to fold every hand but what a chart says...but you are looking at the more marginal hands and finding if there is a reason to play it, a hand you might have always tossed, A7o...but now you find yourself in a situation where its not only playable, but raise-able.

Its an intresting game...and Im still learning, but I love where the hellish road has taken me...its not something Id want to go through again...but man, does it pay off. Just takes work.

[Webster]

Thne problem with that stats post is it is from players that are not THAT good. (Boy - I'm catching flak on THIS one).

The parameters were all players with 1.4BB/100 or better. Well - 1.4 is not THAT good. it's GOOD but it is only showing you the AVERAGE of a middle of the road winner.

Personally? I think you are to aggressive, at least at that level. 2.61 is hi and perhaps you are kicking players out to early that would be calling down with their weak hands . . . .just food for thought.

My last 25,000 hands in 2/4 and higher is 2.35/100 and I'm less aggressive then you are. I really think you are raising players out of hands. Also the Went to SD numbers are pretty low which seems odd considering your aggression. But your Win AT SD is right on.

I see where you are losing out - (at least compared to me!) you are folding to much LOL. Perhaps it's MY leak. Still - I sure don't want to change with 100,000 hands under my belt! It seems to be working for a number of years now!

Grinderswarehouse - NOT just another BLOG

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
Thne problem with that stats post is it is from players that are not THAT good. (Boy - I'm catching flak on THIS one).


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I agree. Thats one reason I said to ignore the Blind Steal stat. But I think in general...most stats are decently solid.