fold/call with four to a flush

Just wondering what you guys do when it comes up. Last night I had A-K, board came King,10, blank. I raised furiously with 2 callers on flop and turn. The river completes a straight for me, but it also puts four to a suit I don't have - D'OH. The one caller bets out, and I'm 100% sure I'm beaten so I fold cos surely with two other guys there has to be a flush out there- WRONG, the winner had a King high straight so I would have won.
Well I was so pissed off I couldn't carry on playing. I guess I've learned my lesson about folding on a big pot when you're certain you're beaten ie: DON't DO IT

That said I'll be calling those four flush boards for the rest of my life and losing hundreds of $ ... sigh....

[IsaacW]

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I guess I've learned my lesson about folding on a big pot when you're certain you're beaten ie: DON't DO IT

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Indeed. You hit the nail on the head here.

We need more information to make a proper determination here. Specifically, we need to know how many bets are in the pot at the end and whether you are closing the action (last to call).

If there were 19 bets in the pot already and you're closing the action, you'd better be 95% sure that there is a flush out before folding. Since you can't be that sure (even 90% is a stretch), you've got to call here in a 19 bet pot.

[adsman]

welcome to the forums. There's a little old theory that floats around here called the 'Clarkmiester'. It goes like this;
If you're heads up, on the river and first to act, and the fourth flush card drops, then bet.
Maybe your opponent knew that ..... who knows...

[michaliv]

Its not a bad laydown at all. I hate it when I am wrong, but the chances of someone having one card that completes the flush are too great. If there was only 1 opponent in this hand I may consider calling, but that is only if I have known this player to bluff before. Any more than 1 preson and I am out of the hand. Good Laydown.

[deception5]

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Its not a bad laydown at all. I hate it when I am wrong, but the chances of someone having one card that completes the flush are too great. If there was only 1 opponent in this hand I may consider calling, but that is only if I have known this player to bluff before. Any more than 1 preson and I am out of the hand. Good Laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is terrible advice.

See Ed Miller's article on this.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...amp;PHPSESSID=

Thanks for the welcome - this site is great, soooo much great material :-)

In reply to what the action was. I had raised pre-flop in middle position. UTG checked to me and I bet, LP and UTG called - some others folded - can't remember. Same thing on turn. UTG bet out on river so there were roughly 10 big bets, I folded and LP called down the King high straight.
So I was getting 10-1 to call down. Anyone know what the odds are that 2 other players don't have a certain suit? Could you you work it out like that ie: if the pot is over a specific size/players ratio, then call down?

[albedoa]

Can you explain how Miller's advice relates to this hand and all four-flush boards? Assuming someone has a flush on a three-flush board is one thing, but most of the time here, you are beat. Why isn't it okay to admit that you will lose more money with this call (which I think you will) than you'll win?

EDIT: Or am I wrong, and someone doesn't call down with a high card or any card of the same suit as the board once every eleven times?

[deception5]

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Could you you work it out like that ie: if the pot is over a specific size/players ratio, then call down?

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It's usually a bad idea to come up with formulas for this. If the players are bad (call down too much etc) your hand is likely to be good more often as you'll see all kinds of hands (sure I'll call one more with pocket 7's on the river with 4 overcards and 4 to a flush, never know right?).

It's more important to know how the players play than what the odds are of them being dealt two cards of the particular suit, particularly since most of those combinations will be mucked by decent players J4s, 72s, etc). Also consider that players are more concerned with what their hands are (I have a three of a kind that's a solid hand) then what you might be holding so while a bet may mean a strong hand it may not mean the strong hand you fear.

Generally though figure out what it will cost you to see the showdown and how large the pot is. If it's 10BB and 1BB to you you need to be 90% certain you're behind to fold.

[deception5]

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Assuming someone has a flush on a three-flush board is one thing, but most of the time here, you are beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree with your statement. You are beat here very often. But it's still worth a call because if the pot is 19BB you only need to win 5% of the time for your call to be profitable. Surely someone will bet out here with a worse hand than a flush that often, think about how profitable the bet was in this example.

This example was unclear as to the size of the pot, but the poster said that he raised furiously on the flop and turn leading me to believe this pot was large. Even if it was only 10BB you still need to win only 10% of the time. It also makes a difference whether it was a monotone flop or not (giving odds for anyone with a single card of that suit to call down).

Also, according to Clarkmeister's Theorem - if you were going to call a bet on the river here it's far better to bet yourself. You may fold a better hand and it is extremely likely that you would be raised by anything but a flush. So it's possible that the player is betting out based on this concept.

Finally, the probability of one of the 2 players having a flush card:

52 cards in the deck minus 2 hole cards minus 5 board cards = 45 remaining cards.

9 flush cards out there still so the chance of all 4 hole cards in the 2 players' hands being non-flush

(36/45*35/44*34/43*33/42)=39%

meaning the probably of 1 or more flush cards being out there is 61%.

It's slightly more likely that someone continued because of a flush but even so there's a good enough chance that we are not against a flush to warrant a call here.

[bottomset]

you guys do realize that there are 2ppl left to act after hero, though the OP worded his post terribly

hero is beat here >95% of the time