bluffing in micro limits

[tiltaholic]

CO is far too loose pf (VP=40%), but knows how to raise good cards pf, generally passive postflop.

What to make of this? bluff or not?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB folds.

River: (7.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero ?

[topspin]

[ QUOTE ]
*sigh* dude i was just giving an idea. i was talking about HU. this isn't a default. i was merely giving a suggestion to a poster asking about his weak-tight tendencies how to answer a possible bluffer.

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Same here. I'm just trying to point out that the instinctive response of pushing back against someone you think is bluffing is often less profitable than sitting back and letting their own aggression work against them.

[ QUOTE ]
to return to the OP: it is very much possible to properly bluff at the proper time the proper amount of times against the proper opponent with the proper table image (yes, i do believe it is possible to have this online).

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I don't disagree. An earlier post in the thread made a good point that "no bluffing" is often good advice to give newbies, since many usually bluff far too much, but never firing at pots without a big hand also becomes as big a disadvantage as you improve and move up.

[topspin]

I make this crying call 100% of the time, but on a blank like this I think you're screwed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Yikes, I hate it when these happen. I'm also still new at this so what I think may be very wrong.

I usually don't see river bluffs very often so I'm much more inclined to think CO has something. My guess is that he has spades and was trying to keep BB in the hand.

Even so, I think I make the call just so that I know whether I was beat by the spades, a flopped set, or a flopped two pair.

So, I guess what I mean to say is that I don't think it's bluffing but it's worth 1BB to find out what hands he's willing to wait till the river to pop.

[PuckNPoker]

I think its all about who you're bluffing. You dont bluff into calling stations, but their are plenty of weak-tight players that you can bluff out. If it is HU or 2 way and the other player(s) in the pot is weak-tight the chance of running a successful bluff increases. Texture of the board also dictates when to bluff, it is easier to bluff into a scary board against weak-tight players.

[AmarilloJim1]

Good post...I just got back from Vegas for a week, and this applies to 3-6 live players as well. They will not fold!!!

nh

[tiltaholic]

first -i guess this is a pseudo-hijack since the OT is about bluffing, not being bluffed.

anyway. so what percentage of the time do you think is this a bluff?

at the time, i felt it was about 10%.
if so, isn't the correct play clear?

[Henke]

If it's around 10% the correct play is clear. I kinda doubt that the probability is that high though, but then I haven't played 2-4 neither...

[michaliv]

If you have a loose passive table that has been to the river every hand, then bluffing or even semibluffing may not be idea. If there is any chance that your opponent will fold, that is when it becomes profitable. In Micro limit games I only semibluff w/ flush or straight draws. Usually if you play straight forward in these games you will do just fine.

[ QUOTE ]
anyway. so what percentage of the time do you think is this a bluff?

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I think I'm getting bluffed much less than 10% of the time on the river. If this happens on the turn, then I think 10% or even a bit more is right. You've mentioned that the player is a bit loose but at least semi-thinking. If I suspect a player like this is making a move, I immediately think about how I've played the last few orbits to find any of my behavior which makes me look susceptible.

If I've ended up betting and missing some flush draws and he's seen that, then maybe I give a 10% chance of a river bluff. I guess roughly the same if he's seen me bet every street with a whiffed AK (which I don't do very often.). If I haven't done any of these things lately, I put the bluff percentage closer to 5% or less.

So here, I call when I'm pretty sure I'm beat for the following reasons:
1) If I fold, the likelihood of this happening to me again goes way up.
2) If he's not bluffing, I want to know why he took this line against me. It also doesn't cost me anything since I would have gone into check/call mode if he had popped this on the turn instead.