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  #1  
Old 12-22-2005, 06:46 AM
GutPunch GutPunch is offline
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Default QQ on the bubble heavy action ($55)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t3465)
Button (t2210)
SB (t2215)
Hero (t2110)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 folds</font>. Button pushes allin, SB pushes allin, Hero???


Button has shown to be a donky, pushing weakish hands, and calling allins with weakish hands, got lucky to even be where he is. SB seems to be solid, previous confrontations with the button where he was sucked out on.

Do you overcall this push?
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  #2  
Old 12-22-2005, 06:52 AM
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Default Re: QQ on the bubble heavy action ($55)

lol. Well while I feel you're probably ahead here, the button and sb both have nearly the exact same amount of chips so if you fold you're guaranteed in the money. Of course there is value in playing for first and if you call this and win you'd be in great shape for it with over 6000 chips. Of course then always the chance an A or a K come on the board and you are out in 4th. Well I think this is one of those times when I curse and fold the hand. I think if I had kings or aces I'd call, but I'm gonna let go of QQ.

I'm actually really curious to see what some other people will say.
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  #3  
Old 12-22-2005, 07:11 AM
handsome handsome is offline
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Default Re: QQ on the bubble heavy action ($55)

QQ's not good enough.
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  #4  
Old 12-22-2005, 07:21 AM
HesseJam HesseJam is offline
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Default Re: QQ on the bubble heavy action ($55)

I guesstimate that you are slightly over 50% to win here. This would give you an EV of 0.66 x 50% + .33 x 30% = 43% of the prize money. So, half of it would be around 22%.

If you let it go your equity is about 30% of the prize money.

So, let it go.
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  #5  
Old 12-22-2005, 07:27 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: QQ on the bubble heavy action ($55)

Easy easy fold.

If you had 2211-2214 chips, it would be closer, and 2215+ chips, you should call (I think).
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  #6  
Old 12-22-2005, 07:36 AM
HesseJam HesseJam is offline
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Default Re: QQ on the bubble heavy action ($55)

I don't think 2215+ is enough. You'll need enough to survive the small blind coming up next in case the guy with 2210 wins.
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  #7  
Old 12-22-2005, 07:38 AM
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Default Re: QQ on the bubble heavy action ($55)

easy fold but you hate to do it
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  #8  
Old 12-22-2005, 08:01 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
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Default Re: QQ on the bubble heavy action ($55)

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think 2215+ is enough. You'll need enough to survive the small blind coming up next in case the guy with 2210 wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if the guy with 2210 wins, the other guy with 2215 goes out, doesn't he? As long as both don't beat you, of course. Then you're ITM.
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  #9  
Old 12-22-2005, 08:10 AM
Shillx Shillx is offline
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Default Re: QQ on the bubble heavy action ($55)

Easy fold with queens. AA is the tough one in this spot. I dunno what I would do but it figures to be pretty close either way as it would have ~70% equity against 99+ for the caller and ??? for the pusher. Against 2 loose ranges it would be a call.
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  #10  
Old 12-22-2005, 08:35 AM
GutPunch GutPunch is offline
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Default Re: QQ on the bubble heavy action ($55)

I just don't see how this is such an easy fold. If you play for first every time, this is very tuff hand. If you put the button as having an weakish ace, and the sb as having a big ace, is this not a clear call? As your equity rises with 2 aces being out. If you win this hand, you would be going to HU with almost a 3:1 chip advantage, while if you lose, your out.

Poker Stove results:
This is the range I put these two on.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.6463 % 40.45% 01.20% { QQ }
Hand 2: 19.3645 % 18.53% 00.83% { 66+, A2s+, KQs, A2o+ }
Hand 3: 38.9893 % 37.28% 01.71% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }

Say we tighten it up a bit.


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 38.8880 % 37.61% 01.28% { QQ }
Hand 2: 21.6530 % 20.16% 01.50% { 99+, A9s+, A9o+ }
Hand 3: 39.4590 % 37.30% 02.16% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }



Your still almost 40% to win this hand vs. the other two people. If you take this, are you just gambling? Or is your equity enough to make this a right call?
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