30-60 stud8 leveraging a low on 4th

[jon_1van]

7 Card Stud High-Low ($30/$60), Ante $5, Bring-In $10 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises___raises___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls___calls
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___raises___raises

4th Street - (13.00 SB)

Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___????
Seat 2: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Do you try to get seat 2 to push out the bust 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[blumpkin22]

I'd be surprised if Seat 8 is going anywhere on 4th, even though he bricked. If he's a decent player I think he has to have three baby hearts here, and I think the pot is big enough that he's gonna peal, even for two bets.

[Backstabr]

That's what I'd do, but with the pot this big, I don't know if it has much chance of working: he'll be getting 8-1.

[mscags]

I really don't like the third street action here Jon. I would just call when he limp reraises. Very unlikely that you are getting the 2 Seat out and you have a one way hand. I would check call fourth. With as much money as there is in there, I doubt the 8 seat is folding, plus it is very possible that seat 8 has a concealed high hand or even trips.

[blumpkin22]

I also agree with mscags that you should just call on third. I'd be surprised if he were rolled up (there's a dead 6); also I don't think he would play pocket kings like that on third. For reason I'm pretty convinced he had a monster like 654 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't like the third street action here Jon. I would just call when he limp reraises. Very unlikely that you are getting the 2 Seat out and you have a one way hand. I would check call fourth. With as much money as there is in there, I doubt the 8 seat is folding, plus it is very possible that seat 8 has a concealed high hand or even trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must tend to agree with you here. The 3-bet really screwed me here. I made the pot too big, and thus I removed any leverage I would have on 4th street. If 4th street has 1 opponent catch a baby and 1 catch a brick, I can always arrange for the bricked opponent to face 2 bets cold, I can either check, and wait for the nice board to bet, and then raise. Or I can bet out into a nice board and hopes he raises immeditately. Either way, I can arrange for the busted board to face 2 cold. But when I balloned the pot on 3rd this leverage I had went down the crapper because as Blumpkin said, he may just call 2 cold anyway.

I will say that I'm not too scared about rolled 6s, pocket Ks or pocket As. The 3 to a low flush is mathematically the biggest option by far here.


Anyway, by going ape on 3rd I drastically reduced my ability to engineer a scoop. This was a fun lesson to learn.


In the hand I check called 4th and 3 flush boy caught the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] And I was done. He had 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

The other guy had a non premium low draw

[AlanBostick]

Most likely hand for seat 8 is (AA)6K. She's not going anywhere.

Check and fold.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
Most likely hand for seat 8 is (AA)6K. She's not going anywhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the most likely hand is a low 3 flush.

AA - 3 ways
666 - 1 way
Ah6h(2-8 h) - 6 ways
2h6h(3-8 h) - 5 ways
3h6h(4-8 h) - 4 ways
4h6h(5-8 h) - 3 ways
5h6h(7-8 h) - 2 ways
6h7h8h - 1 way

21 total ways for this guy to have a low 3 flush

[mscags]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Most likely hand for seat 8 is (AA)6K. She's not going anywhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the most likely hand is a low 3 flush.

AA - 3 ways
666 - 1 way
Ah6h(2-8 h) - 6 ways
2h6h(3-8 h) - 5 ways
3h6h(4-8 h) - 4 ways
4h6h(5-8 h) - 3 ways
5h6h(7-8 h) - 2 ways
6h7h8h - 1 way

21 total ways for this guy to have a low 3 flush

[/ QUOTE ]

I do agree that his most likely hand is a low 3 flush, however, if the hand would have played out and it felt more like the guy was rolled up or had something else I would try to adjust my read accordingly

[Andy B]

Basically what Scags said.