BR Requirements for HU SNG's

[Landon_McFly]

How many buy-ins do you need?

What's the highest ROI sustainable on Pstars?

Thank You. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[bawcerelli]

2 buy ins, 98%

[valenzuela]

you need 10 buy-ins for small stakes maybe 15 for higher buy-ins.
This number come out of nowhere but I think theyre accurrate. On highest possible ROI, everybody seems to think 70% is attainable on lower buy-ins.

[Exitonly]

70% Win rate... not ROI.

and you need more than 10 buyins, like 30+

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70% Win rate... not ROI.

and you need more than 10 buyins, like 30+

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with both of these statements.

I've got a >80% winrate at the $10.50s on bodog over 500 HU SnGs. I've likely been running hot, but the odds that I really should be at 70% are insignificant (at higher stakes, I assume this is nowhere near possible).

Also, variance in HU SnGs is very low, so I doubt you'd need 30 buy-ins if you've got a winrate of 60-70%. 15 should be fine.

[valenzuela]

yeah ROI, winrate whatever, anyway 30+ is way tooooooooo much, maybe , maybe 20.

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[ QUOTE ]
70% Win rate... not ROI.

and you need more than 10 buyins, like 30+

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with both of these statements.

I've got a >80% winrate at the $10.50s on bodog over 500 HU SnGs. I've likely been running hot, but the odds that I really should be at 70% are insignificant (at higher stakes, I assume this is nowhere near possible).

Also, variance in HU SnGs is very low, so I doubt you'd need 30 buy-ins if you've got a winrate of 60-70%. 15 should be fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

That said, it's no fun to be playing for 1/10 or even 1/15 of your BR. So for psychological reasons, I think exit's point may be pretty valid.

[gildwulf]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
70% Win rate... not ROI.

and you need more than 10 buyins, like 30+

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with both of these statements.

I've got a >80% winrate at the $10.50s on bodog over 500 HU SnGs. I've likely been running hot, but the odds that I really should be at 70% are insignificant (at higher stakes, I assume this is nowhere near possible).

Also, variance in HU SnGs is very low, so I doubt you'd need 30 buy-ins if you've got a winrate of 60-70%. 15 should be fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure HU SNG variance is low?

The standard deviation of a HU SnG is just SQRT(wW^2 + lL^2) where w is chance of winning, W is amount you win, l is chance of losing and L is amount you lose. If you're a 50/50 player, for example, the SD of a 10.50 HU SnG is ~$10.01.

For a ten-person SnG, your SD is SQRT((w1)(W1)^2 + (w2)(W2)^ + (w3)(W3)^2 + lL^2), where w1 is your chance of coming in first and W1 is what you earn for first. If you're an average player in the $11s, your SD for one trial is $16.76.

This effect actually increases as a player becomes better (which is why you need less than 5/8 the BR to play HU SnGs). I've really gotta get back to work, but you can play around with these numbers and see what I mean.

[Irieguy]

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I disagree with both of these statements.

I've got a >80% winrate at the $10.50s on bodog over 500 HU SnGs. I've likely been running hot, but the odds that I really should be at 70% are insignificant (at higher stakes, I assume this is nowhere near possible).

Also, variance in HU SnGs is very low, so I doubt you'd need 30 buy-ins if you've got a winrate of 60-70%. 15 should be fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's interesting that your understanding of HU variance is spot-on (you even provide the forumula for calculating it), while you would put in print the belief that there is an "insignificant" chance that you should win fewer than 70% of your matches.

But if you insist: I will wager any amount of money you wish that your win rate over your next 200 HU SNGs at any level on any site (assuming your opponents aren't trying to lose) is less than 75%.

I will also take side action for any amount on the same from anybody.

Irieguy