5/10 River Raise

[gildwulf]

Whattaya think...FPS? Opponent is TAG (25/17/1.9)

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.20 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, BB calls.

River: (9.20 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>...

Final Pot: 13.20 BB

[Redd]

Gildwulf,
What worse hands do you expect him to bet-call on the river here?

[gildwulf]

Probably just KQ...I was more thinking I could get him to fold hands like TJ or QJ. I am also obviously folding to a raise here.

[Buckmulligan]

If he has Two pair, I don't think there's any chance he made it on the flop or the turn. His line is LEAST indicative of a two pair.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Probably just KQ...I was more thinking I could get him to fold hands like TJ or QJ. I am also obviously folding to a raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, KQ is a possibility; I don't think his play is really consistent with TJ/QJ tho?

It's hard to put him on a range of hands here; it looks like a gutsy wa/wb of some sort, but why wouldn't he realize that he's pretty toast against most of your hand range? Without one of the several monsters on the board, he's a huge dog to your 88-AA, AK, KQ, AQ, AJish range. If he's smart enough to realize what sort of shape his hand is in, I think I'd rather just call.

[Buckmulligan]

I don't see a TAG donking this river with AJ, so I think I'm just peeling. I dont know of any worse hands that are bet/calling us here.

[imported_leader]

I wouldn't raise the flop or the river. The flop raise rarely cleans up your outs but it's not worth the extra cost and risk, IMO. I don't think you're getting called enough by worse hands on the river, but it's decently close. He could have an oddly played KQ.

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't raise the flop or the river. The flop raise rarely cleans up your outs but it's not worth the extra cost and risk, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't raise the river either, but I would probably routinely raise this flop. Could you embelish on your reasons why raising this flop is not such a good idea.

We have approximately 8.5 outs and we can play for a free card or fold out hands like A5, Q5, AT, QT? Is the reason we don't raise because they are unlikely to fold these types of hands, or that they just don't happen frequently enough to cover our equity deficit?

True

[Guruman]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't raise the river either, but I would probably routinely raise this flop. Could you embelish on your reasons why raising this flop is not such a good idea.

We have approximately 8.5 outs and we can play for a free card or fold out hands like A5, Q5, AT, QT? Is the reason we don't raise because they are unlikely to fold these types of hands, or that they just don't happen frequently enough to cover our equity deficit?

True

[/ QUOTE ]

we're probably getting threebet with a lot of the hands that you listed as wanting to fold, because those guys like to read pf raises as auto UI overs on these type of flops.

Also, the probability of a freecard is slimmer than usual, since a flop lead into the pfr is usually indicative of at least a pair, and you'll likely see a stopngo from that kind of hand.

I tend to raise this HU, check through the turn UI and call a river bet.

With this many players in though, there are tons of worse draws and pairs that could follow along behind us that we don't want to push out.

I like a peel and a turn reeval.

sometimes straightforward play is the most deceptive. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Guruman]

...also, a tag could be anticipating a raise from us here with a weak made hand, hoping we'll clear the field.

Lets not help him out with that.