20/40 Bad call on third and getting what I deserved.

[frappeboy]

[ QUOTE ]
What reasonable opponent would bet out on 6th after being raised on 5th by a paired door unless he could beat trips?

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is where the misconception lies, not all players are reasonable. Not only that, but if I was the guy with open Aces, and had pocket kings, I'd bet 6th street because the 9 was dead on 3rd street.

As for the river bet, how many people are gonna fold aces up on the river with a big pot? I figure you'll get called here by ATLEAST 50% of the players who play on partypoker, and I think that estimate is very conservative.

Think about how great this value bet was for Mike. He ran into the biggest hand his opponent could have, and he didn't even get raised on 6th or the river!

[BTirish]

Even at 1/2 and 2/4, I give opponents some credit for their aggression until I see them make a dumb play. I would assume that this is an even better policy at 20/40. I don't think you get to assume both that the villain in this hand is sub-reasonable and that he remembers the dead 9 and therefore figures there is value in leading out on 6th.

My point is that the holdings for which his 6th street play are the most reasonable are trip A's or 8's full. Obviously he played 5th street a little weak, but he likely got the same amount of bets in that he would have in the end. It might be true that more than 50% of the time an opponent here would pay off with A's up, but I don't think it's obvious that the opponent has A's up most of the time here for the bet to be valuable.

There are a lot more ways that he can have a single A in the hole than TT to KK. Sure, being rolled up is the least likely mathematically... but do we just never suspect that an opponent is likely rolled up and save a bet? We all consider calling down against a paired door card a mistake, and I usually consider a game at 1/2 or 2/4 where one or two opponents consistently do so a really juicy game.

[benwood]

Assuming that seat 3 is going to call 3rd & 4th,you get 6 to 1 on 3rd,which pretty much propels you into a call on 4th,getting 9 to 1 at that point.So,looking at the 2 streets together,you're getting 4 to 1 on the 3rd/4th combo,which looks like a pretty reasonable shot with this hand,imo.I believe it's right to call 3rd,intending to also call 4th,unless something unexpected happens.

[frappeboy]

Ok fine, keep on checking hands when you fear your opponent is rolled up and I'll keep on betting my hands.

[MRBAA]

At lower limits, I am about as aggressive as it gets. But my hand reading would have had me back off on sixth or not bet on seventh. But it does depend on opponent and his perception of you, of course.