calculating the equity in Drew's Article (More Reading Hands)

[oreogod]

Im just going to come out an say it, I suck at calculating EV/Equity. I can count combos, give u weighed outs, tell u how many suited combos are in a deck, etc...but I suck at taking the info below and plugging it into a forumla that works...actually I should say, I have trouble taking the info below, translating it into numbers and then plugging them into the forumla in such a way that it works. So Im asking for your help. Im a little fuzzy here.

It is for Hand 2. Posted below.

Be gentle.


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mple No. 2: This second hand was also in a $20-$40 game, this time at the Mirage in Las Vegas. I folded this hand, but it's interesting to look at from the perspective of the player under the gun (UTG) who raised with

T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

A tight, very good, very aggressive player next to act reraised. Everyone folded around to the big blind (BB) who called. The BB is very loose and fairly aggressive. He's a decent thinker, but he loves to "gamble it up." He will push strong draws and marginal hands, but he can recognize when it becomes clear that he's behind. UTG called. Three people saw the flop of
K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The BB bet out, and UTG raised with his set of tens. The solid player 3-bet, and the BB called without hesitating. UTG 4-bet, and the solid player capped it at five bets. BB and UTG called.

The turn was the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. BB checked. UTG checked. The solid player bet. The BB now check-raised. What should UTG's play have been? What did his opponents likely have? Including the bets on this street, your immediate odds are 16-to-2, but your effective odds are much worse — you will likely need to pay more than three big bets to see a showdown.

The solid player almost certainly has one of three hands: AA, KK, or AK. There are three ways he can have aces, three ways he can have kings, and nine ways for ace-king, but his cap on the flop makes it more likely that he has kings or aces than ace-king, although ace-king is still possible. Now, the most likely hands for BB are queen-jack suited and a pair of fours, with queen-jack suited being much more likely. Because it's not the purpose of this article, I won't get into the math (although it would be a good exercise for the reader to do: Estimate the likelihood of each specific hand for your opponents and calculate UTG's equity in the pot, then determine the EV of calling), but UTG should fold and would lose quite a bit if he called down.

As you can see from these examples, the ability to read hands can allow a good player to make calls with marginal hands confidently on scary boards and to save several bets in large pots with hands that appear great.

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[muckdumper]

i would asume solid player has trip kings and lose agressive player has 2 pair or draw/flush working solid player will bet full value for his hand

[oreogod]

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i would asume solid player has trip kings and lose agressive player has 2 pair or draw/flush working solid player will bet full value for his hand

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Well, sure.

I was just hoping for some mathematical orientated answer...you know?

[The Dude]

For calculations like these, you're going to need the assistance of a computer program. I generally use Poker Calculater, although another common one is twodimes.net. What you'll do is select a range of hands for your opponent, and use it to calculate your EV. You then repeat the process for each range of hands, and weight each separate range according to how likely you think it is they have that specific range.

For example, if you think your opponent has x type of hand 90% of the time and y type of hand 10% of the time, then you do an EV calc for each type and plug that into the following equation:
.9x + .1y = Overall EV

Of course you won't be able to do this kind of math at the table, but taking situations like these and going through the numbers away from the table makes you more able to make these kinds of decisions at the table.

To use the hand in question as an example, I'm guessing calling down is going to be costing UTG about 2BBs - assuming he never faces another raise (often not true anyway). I might decide to actually run some numbers on this hand, but I'm not sure.

Do you guys think there enough question about how to calc equity in these kinds of situations that an article should be dedicated specifically to that?

[Ghazban]

I think an article that walks the reader through some of the math involved in these situations would be beneficial to many readers. While many players reading this site have the ability (if not the desire) to sit down and crunch the numbers, I suspect there are also some here who might be able to do the algebra but wouldn't be able to correctly set up the equations.

[oreogod]

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Do you guys think there enough question about how to calc equity in these kinds of situations that an article should be dedicated specifically to that?

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I think it would benefit a lot of ppl IMO. Take me for example...I know the concepts, how to get weighed outs...etc etc...but doing actual EV calcs from information presented is something I need work on. Im sure the same could be said for more than a small number of posters do.

An article, with 2-3 hands detailing the above concept would be great. Your reading hands articles do rock regardless.

Anyway, thanks.

[oreogod]

well I did some numbers myself. I think I did this right. Comments appreciated if I messed up.

.9(1.78) + .1(88) ~ 10.4 percent equity or about 8.6:1

Now if we count the effective odds on the turn, if it doesn’t get raised or capped...best case, no more raises, we are looking at 19:3 (call from solid player + 1 bet from each on the river) or 6.3:1 w/ the call on the end. We are about 8.6:1 equity wise. So even in the best case scenario, where we pay the minimum by calling two cold on the turn and calling a bet on the river, we are still far below what we need. Making this a pretty clear fold, as best case scenario looks grim and if you count reality, it is probably going to be much worse.



Here is the Pokerstove info I got my numbers from:

1,008 games 0.005 secs 201,600 games/sec

Board: Kd Th 4s Ad
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 01.7857 % [ 00.02 00.00 ] { TsTc }
Hand 2: 16.6667 % [ 00.17 00.00 ] { AA-KK }
Hand 3: 81.5476 % [ 00.82 00.00 ] { QJs }


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1,134 games 0.005 secs 226,800 games/sec

Board: Kd Th 4s Ad
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 88.0952 % [ 00.88 00.00 ] { TsTc }
Hand 2: 09.5238 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 02.3810 % [ 00.02 00.00 ] { 44 }