I just lost $400 on this hand - and I deserved to lose!

[imported_anacardo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hit top pair, move all-in on the flop. I like it. Nice. How many times do you have to do that to lose your bankroll ? I guess we will find out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give us more reasoning than just rhetoric? Math, maybe? How often does an opponent in this hand have something they will call with that will beat us at a showdown if I pushed on the flop? Whats the EV of pushing and just calling?

I'm not trying to antagonize, I'm trying to get more information out of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

For God's sake, please don't try to argue with this guy.
He's on his ninth incarnation, banned again and again.
All he does is bitch, and whine, and troll.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hit top pair, move all-in on the flop. I like it. Nice. How many times do you have to do that to lose your bankroll ? I guess we will find out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give us more reasoning than just rhetoric? Math, maybe? How often does an opponent in this hand have something they will call with that will beat us at a showdown if I pushed on the flop? Whats the EV of pushing and just calling?

I'm not trying to antagonize, I'm trying to get more information out of you.

[/ QUOTE ]
Grunch, you'd get more benefit from using the ignore function, sadly, than from responding. PM me if you need more info.

[Marlow]

[ QUOTE ]
You put all your money in with TPTK. You lost. That's about what I'd expect. You overplayed a pair.

I can't believe all the advice in here. Guess what. No matter what you bet on the turn or flop, you still have another guy who called the flop bet so you won't be able to fold a draw. Call the flop bet and hope he doesn't hit his draw. Bet turn if no heart hits and bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not so sure about this:
[ QUOTE ]
Call the flop bet and hope he doesn't hit his draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is fine in limit, but Hero either suspect that he is a little ahead or really way behind. Calling is the worst option for a number of reasons. I think that those reasons have been covered in this thread. But I just wanted to reiterate that calling in situations like this in big bet poker will lead to ruin.

Just my 2p.

Marlow
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[theredpill9]

It's mathematics.

I guess the odds of someone flopping a set when you flop a pair are worse than 8 to 1 but if you are pushing a 40 BB stack on the flop , it's probably not too good for you. Regardless of whether you push it on the flop, turn, or river, you are still pushing it. I'm just against it, that's all. It's worked for me.

.10/.25 NL. YOu have $12. Villain has $12. Other guy has $12. YOu have AK.

YOu raise To $1 (4x blind)

2 callers. Villain has 22. Other guy has Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Flop:

A 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] pot=$3

One guy bets 1.5 . Villain calls. You push all-in for $12. One guy calls. Villain calls.

Villain wins this $36 * .66 = $24
ONe wins this $36 *.33 = $12
You win $36 * .00 = 0

That happens 4 to 1 times since both are about 8 to 1 to hit something. Flush draw etc.

You pick up $3 3 out of 4 times so you win $3* 3 = $9 and lose $12 the other time. So you lose $-3 every 4 times. This happens because they only call you when they have something. The other time it goes check /check.

[AndrewtheBold]

Let me preface this post by saying that I am very much a novice. That said, why not call the bet on the flop, and then do the following on the turn:
A) Anyone bets - you fold
B) No heart falls, checked to you - you push
C) Heart falls, checked to you - check and play the river by ear

Someone with Ax probably isn't going to bet the turn and your all-in bet on the turn when a non-heart falls provides terrible odds for a flush draw. Basically, you risk the same amount of money as when you push on the flop, but you have a much better read than you did on the flop so you can let it go some of the time that you are beaten. Is there something terrible about this play?

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
That said, why not call the bet on the flop, and then do the following on the turn:
A) Anyone bets - you fold
B) No heart falls, checked to you - you push
C) Heart falls, checked to you - check and play the river by ear

[/ QUOTE ]
because
[ QUOTE ]

Someone with Ax probably isn't going to bet the turn

[/ QUOTE ]
yes they are since you show no signs of strength on the flop, they certainly will bet the turn quite often
[ QUOTE ]
and your all-in bet on the turn when a non-heart falls provides terrible odds for a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]but your failure to raise the flop provides terrific odds for the flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
Basically, you risk the same amount of money as when you push on the flop, but you have a much better read than you did on the flop so you can let it go some of the time that you are beaten. Is there something terrible about this play?

[/ QUOTE ]
It is too weak to fold the turn and there is no reason to let the flush draw in for free when you can push the flop and force him to fold. The only reason why calling would be better is if it would allow you to get away when behind on the turn or river. So if you had 2K stacks here, MAYBE I could see a call (probably not, though, since you are pretty much guaranteed that the caller is on a flush draw). But with these stacks, you're not getting away unless you're simply giving up on the hand and that is too weak. So since you will be pot committed once you call another bet anyways, you might as well push the flop and force the draw to fold.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
You would have chucked it, really?

[/ QUOTE ]

depends, but really the cold-caller has me more concerned. you said these guys were good players, and generally, a good player won't call on a draw when the preflop raiser is still to act and is pretty likely to raise. i don't know what he has, but between his call and the lead guy showing strength (which is a hand that beats you at least as often as a weaker A), i don't think there's anything wrong with dumping this. mix in the fact that you'd only be able to rebuy for $200 and i think i'd rather save playing a big pot for a hand bigger than TPTK.

i think once you see his JJ you can lower your opinion a couple notches, but it still turns out to be a "made" hand rather than a draw.

and again, this is all read dependant...if i had a read that they were both on weaker made hands, then i'd push. against good players though, that won't be often.

[TheWorstPlayer]

They are being described as 'good' in the context of a live game by a fairly inexperienced no limit poker player (particularly in a live setting). Let's not take that classification too far.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
They are being described as 'good' in the context of a live game by a fairly inexperienced no limit poker player (particularly in a live setting). Let's not take that classification too far.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this evaluation, just to chime in here.

The opponent in question didn't have JJ, he had Jx[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I don't remember what x was.

Edit: I don't remember what X was, but I do remember that it *wasnt* T or Q.

[swolfe]

doh! my bad, misread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]