O/8 hand

[soundgarden4]

Party 10/20 (10 handed)

MP3 limps, CO limps, SB folds and I check in the BB with AcAhKc7s.

Flop is As 3d 9d. I bet. MP3 raises. CO calls two cold and I call.

I can put MP3 on Ax of diamonds and perahps two pair. CO is either on a lower flush draw or has some kind of decent low draw (Most likely), perhaps a wrap wheel draw.

Turn Js. I check. MP3 bets. CO calls. I call. Anyone raise here or are there just too many river cards that can kill my hand.

River Kh. Checked around and MHIG for the scoop. Should I bet the river here figuring that no one has QT in their hand.

Thanks for the help.

Kevin

[djr]

Turn, there are 9 cards that are definate killers and 8 that are very scary on the river (the 9 diamonds and 8 spades that don't pair the board). Although just about any other card that doesn't pair the board will create a possible straight, it would be a miracle straight given the spread on the flop. SO 17/44 are bad, and any low will probably split the pot. Even so, I think the odds are in your favor to raise.

River: the Kh is about the best you could hope for (other than pairing the board). Given MP3's aggression up to this point, I'd be tempted to go for a checkraise, but the best action is probably to value bet.

[gergery]

I like how you played it, but would bet the river for value. I can’t see a QT being very likely to play on given this board. I’d only check vs. aggro/bluffr opponents who would be tempted to bluff with a missed low/diamond draw.

--Greg

[ToneLoc]

I'd raise at some point, trying to eliminate a low draw.

[soundgarden4]

To continue the discussion, if I do bet the river am I going to get called by a worse hand than mine? CO missed both of his draws (either the wrap wheel or the flush), so there's no way he's calling my bet unless he has QT in which case he's going to raise.

MP3 will raise if he has QT and I bet it. If he only has a pair of aces, he probably won't bet it himself and probably won't call my bet. If MP3 hit two pair such as AJ or AK, he will most likely continue to bet it himself in which case I can check raise him on the river. If I bet the river for him, he most likely doesn't raise with two pair, but calls me down earning me just that single bet. I guess it all depends on how often he has two pair and will bet the river with it. What do you guys think? Sound about right?

kevin

[JoshuaMayes]

I play 2/4 and 3/6, so I am not particularly qualified to give advice on the limits you play. Nonetheless, I probably would bet this river. It is possible that either MP3 or the CO is sitting on a two pair hand or a set of nines and would pay you off. QT is not a likely holding given the way the board came down.

I am curious as to why you would try to check-raise MP3 on the river when he's holding two pair. If he is good, there is no way he would bet two pair on the river, because it will only get called by a better hand and is unlikely to bluff out any better hands. But, he would definitely bet the river if he holds QT, in which case your check-raise just costs you an extra bet (or two if you call his reraise, which I wouldn't). Even if he did bet two pair, he probably wouldn't call a check-raise with it. Similarly, if he is bluffing a busted draw, he will just fold to your check-raise. The only possible hand I could see him betting and calling a check-raise with is 99, and I doubt that you will see this enough to make up for the bets you miss when you give up a free showdown to two pair hands.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
To continue the discussion, if I do bet the river am I going to get called by a worse hand than mine? CO missed both of his draws (either the wrap wheel or the flush), so there's no way he's calling my bet unless he has QT in which case he's going to raise.

MP3 will raise if he has QT and I bet it. If he only has a pair of aces, he probably won't bet it himself and probably won't call my bet. If MP3 hit two pair such as AJ or AK, he will most likely continue to bet it himself in which case I can check raise him on the river. If I bet the river for him, he most likely doesn't raise with two pair, but calls me down earning me just that single bet. I guess it all depends on how often he has two pair and will bet the river with it. What do you guys think? Sound about right?

kevin

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your logic, thinking and approach here, but not necessarily with the conclusion.

Unless someone has specifically QT, you have the best hand. And there is little likelihood they do have QT as their other two cards would need to fit extremely well for them to still be here.

They also would not need to necessarily bet two pair or weak set here. Those hands have reasonable showdown value, so MP could be happy to just check and collect the pot with AK/AJ, using the same “I’ll only get played with if beat” logic

My gut just says once you weigh the “% chance he bets if you check, % he calls if you bet, % he raises if you bet”, etc, etc. – that betting is correct against most here, but that’s just my opinion.

--Greg