Some hands and some whine.

[Sabrazack]

I have now run so bad for so long that i don't think im running bad any more. It has quite simply become normal for me. I thought i was a winning player, had a 15% roi over almost 2k tournaments. This has now dropped to 8% over the last 600 tournaments. Im almost sure im playing just as well as i did before, if not better. But i just can't win. So here are a few hands i would like comments on to use as a wake up call or a reassuring.

Im wondering if these pushes are too agressive with my stack sizes.

Hand 1: I had not been overly agressive or pushed alot before this.

#Game No : 2517863856
***** Hand History for Game 2517863856 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14748457 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, August 11, 17:36:41 EDT 2005
Table Table 14511 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: bavafish ( $4090 )
Seat 4: Trajoutname ( $650 )
Seat 8: pOkErLaDy02_ ( $2365 )
Seat 9: SteakJones ( $895 )
Trny:14748457 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Trajoutname [ Jc 8s ]
Trajoutname is all-In [650]

Hand 2: A little like the first hand, same thing

#Game No : 2517963658
***** Hand History for Game 2517963658 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14749041 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, August 11, 17:56:34 EDT 2005
Table Table 14016 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: joh340 ( $2535 )
Seat 3: soonerbunny ( $1345 )
Seat 4: MUSHMASTER ( $2190 )
Seat 7: JonatanB ( $605 )
Seat 9: ADRIZZO ( $580 )
Seat 10: TheSlipper ( $745 )
Trny:14749041 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JonatanB [ Qh 2c ]
JonatanB is all-In [605]

Hand 3:

#Game No : 2517963316
***** Hand History for Game 2517963316 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14748892 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, August 11, 17:56:30 EDT 2005
Table Table 13758 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: DAVID_Q ( $1125 )
Seat 2: rfc12319 ( $445 )
Seat 4: romeo020581 ( $1075 )
Seat 6: PhatCat83 ( $3025 )
Seat 9: JonatanB ( $1430 )
Seat 10: glottis45 ( $900 )
Trny:14748892 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JonatanB [ Ah Jc ]
DAVID_Q calls [150].
rfc12319 folds.
romeo020581 folds.
PhatCat83 calls [150].
JonatanB is all-In [1355]

Hand 4: Had not pushed into his BB before this.

#Game No : 2518166488
***** Hand History for Game 2518166488 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14750009 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, August 11, 18:35:31 EDT 2005
Table Table 13997 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Mavrick101 ( $3396 )
Seat 2: craigmack86 ( $1091 )
Seat 3: NoLimtMonstr ( $725 )
Seat 6: KickerYurAce ( $638 )
Seat 7: UTAMavPoker ( $1650 )
Seat 9: Trajoutname ( $500 )
Trny:14750009 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Trajoutname [ 9c 4s ]
KickerYurAce: damn
craigmack86 folds.
NoLimtMonstr folds.
KickerYurAce folds.
UTAMavPoker folds.
Trajoutname is all-In [425]

[Sabrazack]

I ran them all through ICM and the first two are pretty much even, but since im in the BB soon i think that makes them pushes. I dont think villain calls with any two cards in the 9-4 hand so i think thats a push too. And in the AJ hand no one had shown strenght, so i figured worst case someone calls me with a low PP.

[Chaostracize]

Fold, fold, standard, fold.

Hand 1: You're on the bubble and you really don't have much folding equity with 4 BBs. Try to get into the money here with another shortstack at the table.

Hand 2: Too many players, too crappy of a hand, too likely you'll get called.

Hand 3: A read on the UTG player would be nice, who cares about the BB. But this is standard.

Hand 4: You get the button next hand and a get to be a little more choosy when putting the chips in. Not a lot of folding equity here. Dump this.

[Uppercut]

In hands 1,3,and 4, you have very few chips left. If this is because you just took a bad beat to leave you short-stacked, that is one thing. But if you are letting the blinds eat you up and are not making your move until you are this low, that is a completely different (and easily solvable) problem.

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran them all through ICM and the first two are pretty much even,

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?? I think that's VERY surprising. Want to post your calculations or something? Or did you use SNGPT? Because I think that 1 and 2 are instafolds. Maybe hand nr 1 could be okay in a very tight table. But the last two hands are just fine.

[psyduck]

hand 1: fold
hand 2: fold
hand 3: of course
hand 4: oh you're in the SB. I don't like it too much because BB is a monster stack, but eh, if he has any reasonable range at all, it's fine.

[Sabrazack]

The reason i am pushing this crap is that the blinds will hit me for 1/4 of my stack the next hand. I think i have alot of fold equity here with 4xBB pushing from UTG. I did the ICM through SNGPT, it was pratty much breakeven. But then i input my stack as it would be after posting blinds next hand and then it became a clear push.

Is this stupid reasoning?

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason i am pushing this crap is that the blinds will hit me for 1/4 of my stack the next hand. I think i have alot of fold equity here with 4xBB pushing from UTG. I did the ICM through SNGPT, it was pratty much breakeven. But then i input my stack as it would be after posting blinds next hand and then it became a clear push.

Is this stupid reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]
Sort of. After all, while the chips may be in the pot next hand, they still give you a discount in the pot next round, which has the effect of temprorarily giving you more stack for that one hand.

The real effect of being hit by the blinds should be somewhere in between the two earlier situations. I tend to use 1% as a factor.

BTW, I think a lot of people are calling those pushes though. Eek.

Hand 3 and 4 are very easy for me, I think definitely correct compared to waiting.

[runner4life7]

I think I might be actually pushing all of these, the last two for sure.

[runner4life7]

sweet lastchance agreed with my pushes on 3 and 4 being easy, just hit send before me, but things like that are always nice after seeing everyone folding and being so confused.