Party $15/$30, pocket 9's - Page 3

jgorham · #21 02-16-2005, 04:20 PM

You are correct that I misread the pot size, but I think you are a bit too quick giving the PF raiser AK. A typically tight player could have Ak, AA, KK, QQ, or JJ here. A player who raises 15% preflop probably has a larger range here - AQs, T's etc. On the flop all the info you have is that this person felt strong enough to cap preflop and lead the flop.

It isn't until the turn 3bet that I think AK is likely, which is why at that point I feel calling down is the correct play - but before that you are giving him too much credit.

TheBusiness · #22 02-16-2005, 04:41 PM

You are right that my knowledge of the three-bet on the turn may be corrupting my view of the hand slightly. But even so, I am not saying there was a high likelihood he held AK, I am simply saying that he had 4 outs AT BEST, and maybe not even that. There is some chance that either the big blind or the PF raiser has a club draw, which means the 8 of clubs may not be an out, and there is a decent chance that the PF raiser has AK, which means none of the 8's are outs. So Hero may have 4 outs, but there is a decent chance that some or all of those outs are illusory and will cost him more money. With only 6.5 big bets in the pot and very few or maybe no guaranteed outs, I think a fold on the flop is best. But I agree its a tough decision.

Fianchetto · #23 02-16-2005, 08:30 PM

UTG+1 had A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and I was in a world of hurt.

Funny thing was when it flopped I thought to myself, I better play this cautiously 'cause if he has AK I'm screwed.

pianist · #24 02-16-2005, 10:23 PM

The original poster wrote:

[ QUOTE ]
I have notes on UTG+1, he is a little bit on the loose aggressive side, but not a total donk. Something like VP$IP: 28% PFR: 15%

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, I admit...I have NO CLUE what VP$IP and PFR mean, but I know what the first sentence means.

I also know that while there are lots of players in Party 15/30 who play way too loose up front, only a FRACTION of them open-raise with junk in early position. Most of them open-limp with their small pairs and suited trash.

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

youngin20 · #25 02-16-2005, 11:31 PM

I fold this to the turn 3-bet. i think AK is if not totally obvious, really possible. but then again i play in rather passive games.

DiamondDave · #26 02-17-2005, 07:12 PM

Fold it preflop.

The opener could have a higher pocket pair, in which case you'll win about 1 time out of 5 if you get it heads-up and show down your hand every time.

If the opener has unpaired high cards, you are a very small favorite if you can get it heads-up. Given your position and what I have witnessed recently in 15/30 games, it is not certain that a reraise will knock everyone out. This depends on your opponents and how they perceive you and each other.

Your 99 would be more of a favorite against the opener if he were raising with a small pair, a weak ace, a medium suited connector, or a worse hand. But the looser he is, the less likely it is that the other players will let you have your way with him.

And if other players choose to interfere with your attempt to isolate the opener, you will find yourself looking at a large pot while holding a hand that may be best (who knows?), is very vulnerable if it is, and is drawing very slim if it isn't.

SinCityGuy · #27 02-17-2005, 09:19 PM

There's nothing quite as bad as drawing dead, making your hand and losing money. I was trying to point that out in my initial post.

TStoneMBD · #28 02-17-2005, 11:50 PM

fold flop

TStoneMBD · #29 02-17-2005, 11:52 PM

also, i would cap this turn. you make BB pay on his draw, and UTG will check to you on the river, fearing that you have a flush, and you can check through.

William Jockusch · #30 02-18-2005, 12:00 AM

Preflop: close, but I think you should fold. I know he's a little loose on the raising, but I don't think he's quite loose enough to justify your reraise.

Flop: perfect. Pot is too big to fold here. And I don't think raising would chase enough people out to make it worthwhile.

Turn: flat call. You are behind to AK and to the flush. If your hand is currently good, it's highly dubious that a raise will protect it.

Another reason to flat call is, if it comes back around to you at 3 bets, you can fold.

River: You gotta pay it off.