A baseball bet

[jrobb83]

My friend, occasional 2+2'er maxpowers21 ( not MaxPower), bet me $100 even money that Randy Johnson would win 22 or more games. If he wins 22 or more, I pay him. If he wins 21 or less, he pays me. I accepted the bet and neither of us can back down now, but I thought I'd get OOT's thoughts on who has the edge.

I feel like I have a significant edge in this bet, as it is very difficult for even an exceptional pitcher having a great year to reach 22 wins. Thoughts?

[ClaytonN]

The Baseball Tonight guys are wagering he can get 25, *MAYBE* 30.

Methinks you are -EV.

[JaBlue]

I am a big yankees fan but I am sure you are getting the better end of this one.

[daryn]

you win

tell him he can buy out of the bet now for $50

[MEbenhoe]

odd, 22 is the exact amount of games I predicted Johnson to win this year. That said with all the variables that go into a pitcher winning that many games in a year (which Johnson is easily capable of doing this year) this is probably a +EV bet for you.

[tdarko]

pay up now randy won 16 games on the 4th worst team in baseball history with virtually no run support. when a pitcher goes 16-14 with around a 2.4era and you put him with the yankee lineup 25-30 is possible if he stays healthy

[Paluka]

This is a fantastic bet. Just think of the injury risk alone. Every time RJ gets hurt and starts less than 25 games or so you basically automatically win.

[jesusarenque]

You made a good bet.

[LethalRose]

the yankees rotation faces injury and age issues, Johnson will win at least 25 unless he has a major injury.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
Johnson will win at least 25 unless he has a major injury.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, its not like nobody has won 25 games in fifteen years or anything.