Can a lay down a flopped nut straight to the worst possible turn card?

[phillydilly]

Is this a lay down or a call down on the turn?
Also, is the turn raise a good play to charge single diamonds, or am i just throwing away money at this point?


Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (18.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (20.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (30.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Final Pot: 35.25 BB

[jrz1972]

I don't like the turn raise for a couple of reasons. First, there's a pretty good chance you're already beat, so you're just building a pot for BB. Second, a raise doesn't increase the chances of your winnning the hand since nobody with a big diamond is going to fold for 2 bets in a pot this big. So basically the raise doesn't accomplish much for you.

You have to call this one down, but I think you want to call it down cheaply once the T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] comes off.

And be sure to add CO and Button to your buddy list. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[mack848]

I think that a medium or big single diamond is calling any raise on the turn. Your raise does work though, in that that when BB doesn't re-raise, you learn that he may well not have the flush (yet).

Mind you, I'm calling this down at the very least regardless - it's a huge pot. I don't know whether you should raise the river - I think my river play is too passive. You should certainly call.

[jason1990]

[ QUOTE ]
First, there's a pretty good chance you're already beat

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I think he's behind on the turn in this situation less than 35% of the time. But let's be pessimistic and say that he's behind 50% of the time. When he's ahead on the turn, he'll lose to a bad river card maybe 20% of the time. This still gives him 40% pot equity, so raising the turn is correct.

Unless there's some reason to think BB is a tricky player, I would also raise the river.

[phillydilly]

Slight correction to the title, a friend of mine pointed out a joker would have been a worse card

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First, there's a pretty good chance you're already beat

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I think he's behind on the turn in this situation less than 35% of the time. But let's be pessimistic and say that he's behind 50% of the time. When he's ahead on the turn, he'll lose to a bad river card maybe 20% of the time. This still gives him 40% pot equity, so raising the turn is correct.

Unless there's some reason to think BB is a tricky player, I would also raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's forget a moment about whether Hero is ahead on the turn. What cards could come on the river that beat him?

Answer: Any diamond (9 cards), any T (2 cards), any J (3 cards) or any K (3 cards). Each of these cards figures to give somebody either a flush or a boat, and there's about a 37% chance of one of those cards hitting on the river, so you're 20% estimate is too optimistic.

Also, he could end up with a chop when a non-diamond A or Q hits (6 cards). That's another 15% chance of something not good occuring on the river.

Even if Hero's hand is leading on the turn (and it's not a case of seeing monsters under the bed to recognize that there are both flush and boat possibilities out there and that one of these hands would be quite consistent with the pre-flop and flop action), he's scooping this pot less than 50% of time after the river. Granted, if you're really confident that you're ahead on the turn, and you know everybody is coming along anyway, then a pot-equity raise makes sense. But you need to work on your math if you think he's winning this hand as frequently as your estimates suggest.

[DMBFan23]

I would never fold this in this size pot for one bet.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's forget a moment about whether Hero is ahead on the turn. What cards could come on the river that beat him?

Answer: Any diamond (9 cards), any T (2 cards), any J (3 cards) or any K (3 cards). Each of these cards figures to give somebody either a flush or a boat, and there's about a 37% chance of one of those cards hitting on the river, so you're 20% estimate is too optimistic.

Also, he could end up with a chop when a non-diamond A or Q hits (6 cards). That's another 15% chance of something not good occuring on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're double counting bad cards -- for any diamond to beat him, there can be at most 8 diamonds out, same with all the others (for a K to beat him, a K or T needs to be out, etc). So, a better estimate would be - 8+1.5+2.5+2.5 and +3 for a split card (halved because you get half the pot and won't fold on them) = 17.5 of 46 or 38% you get a bad card on the river, rather than the over 50%. He's got plenty of equity to raise here, I think.

-d

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's forget a moment about whether Hero is ahead on the turn. What cards could come on the river that beat him?

Answer: Any diamond (9 cards), any T (2 cards), any J (3 cards) or any K (3 cards). Each of these cards figures to give somebody either a flush or a boat, and there's about a 37% chance of one of those cards hitting on the river, so you're 20% estimate is too optimistic.

Also, he could end up with a chop when a non-diamond A or Q hits (6 cards). That's another 15% chance of something not good occuring on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're double counting bad cards -- for any diamond to beat him, there can be at most 8 diamonds out, same with all the others (for a K to beat him, a K or T needs to be out, etc). So, a better estimate would be - 8+1.5+2.5+2.5 and +3 for a split card (halved because you get half the pot and won't fold on them) = 17.5 of 46 or 38% you get a bad card on the river, rather than the over 50%. He's got plenty of equity to raise here, I think.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, good point. I still dislike the raise because I think he's often behind here, but yeah you're right that I'm overestimating how often he gets rivered.

[jason1990]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's forget a moment about whether Hero is ahead on the turn. What cards could come on the river that beat him?

Answer: Any diamond (9 cards), any T (2 cards), any J (3 cards) or any K (3 cards). Each of these cards figures to give somebody either a flush or a boat, and there's about a 37% chance of one of those cards hitting on the river, so you're 20% estimate is too optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're right: 20% is foolish, 37% is correct.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if Hero's hand is leading on the turn (and it's not a case of seeing monsters under the bed to recognize that there are both flush and boat possibilities out there and that one of these hands would be quite consistent with the pre-flop and flop action), he's scooping this pot less than 50% of time after the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
I said he's scooping the pot after the river about 40% of the time, which is less than 50%, so I guess we're in agreement here. As for being behind on the turn, I stick by my claim that he is behind at most 35% of the time. I might be willing to bump that to 40%, but no higher than that.

I didn't think you were seeing monsters under the bed. If I did, I would put these percentages much lower. I acknowledge the consistency of flush and boat possibilities with the action so far, and that is why the percentages are as high as they are. Without any reads on the opponents, these are the percentages I would use.

[ QUOTE ]
But you need to work on your math if you think he's winning this hand as frequently as your estimates suggest.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, my original (incorrect) estimates suggested he's winning this hand about 40% of the time. Since my 20% figure was a gross error, let's correct that.

If he's behind on the turn 35% of the time, then he loses

.35 + .37(.65) = 59.05%

of the time. If he's behind on the turn 40% of the time, then he loses

.40 + .37(.60) = 62.2%

of the time. So my original suggestion is still correct: he has a about a 40% pot equity. If you want to consider the split pot possibility, there are actually only four cards for which this matters. (We already accounted for what happens when the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] comes on the river.) One of these four cards comes up 8.7% of the time. Let's assume for simplicity that he will split the pot 50% of the time that one of these cards comes up. Then, if he is ahead on the turn 65% of the time, his pot equity is

.65(.0435)(.5) + .65(.63-.0435) = 39.5%

If he is ahead on the turn 60% of the time, his pot equity is

.60(.0435)(.5) + .60(.63-.0435) = 36.5%

So, frankly, I don't see how it's a question of mathematics here. The only reason not to raise the turn for value is if he believes the chance he's beaten on the turn is significantly higher than 40%. And without any reads on the opponents, I don't see that.

Edit: I just read about the double counting in coming up with the 37%. I hadn't thought about that. That's a very good point. Obviously, this consideration increases all of the equity estimates given above.