Week 2 steam games

[scott8]

I hear what you are saying, but intuitively it makes little sense.

So the pros see a line they like, but wait until just before kickoff to place the bets? Thus causing the line to move?

And the only way I can pick up on these last minute pro scoops is to buy a special software?

I'm growing more skeptical every second.

-SC

[NajdorfDefense]

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I think its important to analyze why the "steam" move is happening.

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The moves that count the most are the ones right before kickoff/tipoff.

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I don't know if I completely agree with this. The "pros" generally bet early. Wouldn't those matter more? Towards the end of the week is when the squares bet and a lot of times they are getting worse lines or are betting it up (albeit slowly) for the pros.

craig

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The most important moves are the pros betting the lines the first day, and then the last hour before kickoff as has been noted.

Often, the public will extend a move the pros have made, say FLA from 3.5 to 5, and run that up to 6.5 like they have now. Then right before KO, some pros will take the other side at 6.5 or 7, because they feel the value has shifted or to create a perfect middle - 28-24, 17-12, 34-28, 20-14, and win on both sides.

naj

[Slacker13]

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I'm growing more skeptical every second.

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Well, i am not trying sell you anything.


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So the pros see a line they like, but wait until just before kickoff to place the bets? Thus causing the line to move?

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Yes.

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I'm growing more skeptical every second.

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I don't waht else to tell you. I have been doing this a long long time, I am just telling you what i know and what i ahve been doing for years and also what i have learned from guys who win every year. I have zero reason to come on this board to BS anyone. I can assure you though that if you ask any "pro" in the country he will say he has Don Best software on his computer.

[Slacker13]

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and then the last hour before kickoff as has been noted.

[/ QUOTE ] The last minute or two before kickoff, not last hour.

[NajdorfDefense]

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and then the last hour before kickoff as has been noted.

[/ QUOTE ] The last minute or two before kickoff, not last hour.

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You must be under the impression that no professional bettors live in Vegas and use runners and do this in person anymore. Online, you can do this all in 5 minutes.

Not live, however. There are still numerous large bankrolls in LV and people who use runners.

Naj

[scott8]

I really am just trying to understand.

Lets take last week with ND +7 vs. Michigan.

If a pro likes the line, why does he need to wait until 2 minutes before kickoff to place the bet?

Or is that part of the definition of pro? You wait until the last minutes so if something unforeseen happens, like Trotter getting kicked out of the game last night, you are not screwed?

Otherwise I still don't understand waiting until right before kickoff. Is it because the pro knows the line is moving in the direction he wants, so by waiting he gets the maximum value for his bet?

Surely some pros must see the lines when they are first posted and like something.

Anyway, I appreciate you taking the time to explain these questions.

-SC

i'm also trying to understand this.

perhaps a large percentage of the public money comes in during that hour before kickoff, which gives the pros a better line.

wait until all the public money is in--then bet.

the public has yet to bet on the fla/tenn game, but the pros bet it when the line came out, moving it upwards. so by theory the pros like fla.

is this correct?

[DOTTT]

Perhaps this article can help.

link

[Back In Black]

good newbie article.....meaning me.

[MookieBlaylock]

Yeah, thanks for the article.