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Old 12-23-2005, 11:10 AM
stuartharris stuartharris is offline
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Default Correct Pot Odds vs Survival Right Now

I'm sure that this has been covered here before, but I've run across a situation several times in the last week where I'm not sure how I should proceed.

I flop a flush draw or an open-ended straight draw. Someone in front of me bets 1/2 pot or so and gets a couple of callers before me. I call.

I miss the turn. Again, someone in front of me bets 1/2 pot or even less and gets a couple of callers. I'm getting 5:1 or so and call again.

What should my thinking be in these situations? Having played a couple of hundred thousand hands of limit, I'm accustomed to playing these hands, knowing that, in the long run, I'll make money. Should that be my thinking here as well? Should I assume that "it's all one long session" and that I'll hit often enough to pay off in the long run? Or should I acknowledge that I'm more likely to miss than hit on this particular hand and that playing, even with correct pot odds, may cost me half my stack and put me into a position where I can no longer play my good game? I'm aware, for example, that the chips I'm gambling are more valuable than the chips I stand to win in this situation.

Can anyone give me insight into how to handle this situation? Has someone developed a reliable method of evaluating "the real pot odds" (perhaps there's a more standard term that I don't know) for this situation?

Any help will be appreciated.
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Old 12-23-2005, 12:12 PM
durron597 durron597 is offline
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Default Re: Correct Pot Odds vs Survival Right Now

[ QUOTE ]
I flop a flush draw or an open-ended straight draw. Someone in front of me bets 1/2 pot or so and gets a couple of callers before me. I call.

I miss the turn. Again, someone in front of me bets 1/2 pot or even less and gets a couple of callers. I'm getting 5:1 or so and call again.


[/ QUOTE ]

I err on the side of stack preservation when my draw is not to the nuts, especially when there are that many callers. If I have a combo draw (12 outs or more) I'm going to be in there raising, not calling.
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  #3  
Old 12-23-2005, 01:19 PM
Snarf Snarf is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2005
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Default Re: Correct Pot Odds vs Survival Right Now

[ QUOTE ]
I flop a flush draw or an open-ended straight draw. Someone in front of me bets 1/2 pot or so and gets a couple of callers before me. I call.

I miss the turn. Again, someone in front of me bets 1/2 pot or even less and gets a couple of callers. I'm getting 5:1 or so and call again.


[/ QUOTE ]

HEre is a thing I posted in the poker theory section. Its short, but helped me out.

Linky

Just don't piss your money away getting sucked into pots. If you might have FE, do what Durron said and play your good+ draws strongly. (12 outs or more is my standard too) If you're concerned about your FE and still have a strong draw - no shame in trying to draw out I don't think --- as long as you have a nice overlay in the pot.
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Old 12-23-2005, 02:05 PM
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Default Re: Correct Pot Odds vs Survival Right Now

With you getting those kind of odds, call. I have never seen the value in raising a single draw. I do not advocate/condone combo draw raises (because that is a subject I have not yet studied), but I think we all know that you shouldn't fold them. Your draw being to the nuts solidifies this. If I hit a flush draw with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and Im getting 6:1 to call, but that is 2/3 of my stack, with many callers ... I think we see that this is a reasonable fold. You HAVE to play good bets, though, when its reasonable to believe that if you hit, you will have the best hand! MUST MUST MUST!
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  #5  
Old 12-23-2005, 02:52 PM
Onaflag Onaflag is offline
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Posts: 258
Default Re: Correct Pot Odds vs Survival Right Now

Making general statements about pot odds without specific hand information is dangerous. Viewing your pot odds the same as ring play is wrong. If you're deep stacked and have favorable implied odds in that if you hit your draw you could do some serious damage to one or more opponents, then by all means, go for it if the loss of a few chips won't otherwise hurt you on the times you don't hit.

And you will not hit more often than you hit. That is important in STTs. In ring games you get to play essentially forever and dig back into your pocket when you run short on chips. STTs have a definite end, a finish, a conclusion, el finito, el dono, fat lady singing. You cannot reload chips.

So if the loss of chips will be significant enough to leave you in a position where you are now a favorite to lose the STT, you have committed a serious error in judgment regarding pot odds.

Your thinking is that in the long run you will win more tournament chips than you lose. And you're right. You will. Unfortunately, we cannot cash out tournament chips. If we could, well, it just wouldn't be a tournament.

Think about it with a different twist. You're on a pure nut flush draw and you absolutely need to hit it to win because you know your opponent(s) are currently ahead and even pairing one of your overcards won't help. Somehow you've made it to the turn and have correct pot odds to make the call even though, should you lose, your chip stack will become "the shorty." You’re slightly worse than a 4-1 dog to hit but are getting 6-1 from the pot. Fold.

Even that is a general scenario and may get criticized here, but the fact is, you're going to lose in that spot 4 times and win once. Even the one time you win out of 5, there's no guarantee you'll go on to win the tournament, but let's say you did in fact do just that. Every time you win in that spot, you go on to win the tournament. In a $55+5 you have invested $300 to play five tournaments. The one time you win, on Stars, you'll win $247.50.

Your nut flush draw, with sufficient pot odds, has cost you $52.5. Clearly -EV.

Onaflag............
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