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  #1  
Old 05-23-2005, 07:45 PM
UprightCreature UprightCreature is offline
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Location: San Jose, CA
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Default I\'m beat but I can outplay him postflop... or can I

NL game, stakes don't matter. Villain is selective preflop and very LAG post flop. In fact villain will go all in no matter what on the flop.

Hero is in the cutoff and villain is on the button. It doesn't really matter what the exact action is except that hero has 9Ts and has entered the pot. Villain makes a pot (X) sized raise and all fold back to hero.

Villainís range here is AA-TT,AKs-AJs,AKo-AQo,KQs

Hero has to call X more making the total pot 3X. How deep does the smaller of the two stacks need to be for this to be a profitable call? How about if the Villain made a double pot raise (2X)?
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  #2  
Old 05-23-2005, 08:18 PM
closer2313 closer2313 is offline
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Default Re: I\'m beat but I can outplay him postflop... or can I

Im not positive if I know what your asking, but Ill try to answer.

Your pot odds are 2:1
This is how T9s fairs against his range of hands

Hand 1: 68.4743 % [ 00.68 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 2: 31.5257 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { T9s }

You are getting a little more than a 2:1 dog. As long as you feel you can outplay him after the flop and win another pot sized bet, then I guess your play is mathematically correct.

If im wrong, hopefully someone will correct me =)
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  #3  
Old 05-23-2005, 10:06 PM
UprightCreature UprightCreature is offline
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Default Re: I\'m beat but I can outplay him postflop... or can I

Thats not really what I'm asking. There is still money to go in and villain is going to go all in post flop no matter what.

The question is given villain's donkey post flop strategy, how much money does villain need behind in order for hero to make up for the fact that hero called a pot sized bet when behind?

Two extreme cases:
Villain (or hero) has nothing left post flop. Hero should fold, since they are worse than 2:1 dog.

Both hero and villain have an infinite ammount left. Hero should call preflop. On the flop the hero should call again iff hero is > even money to win.

At what stack size does the preflop call have precicely 0ev? This should be a pretty small amount for the pot sized raise, and somewhat larger for the 2X raise.
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  #4  
Old 05-30-2005, 04:31 PM
operaman operaman is offline
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Default Re: I\'m beat but I can outplay him postflop... or can I

Wouldn't you need to know how the diferent flops would change your choice? What if you average winning 1/3 of the time preflop ,but only 20% of the flops make it where you have over %50 advantage?
Say only 10 possible flops
flop:
1 95%
2 85%
3 25%
4 25%
5 25%
6 25%
7 20%
8 15%
9 10%
10 5%
avg = %33
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  #5  
Old 05-30-2005, 07:56 PM
Toddster18 Toddster18 is offline
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Default Re: I\'m beat but I can outplay him postflop... or can I

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't you need to know how the diferent flops would change your choice? What if you average winning 1/3 of the time preflop ,but only 20% of the flops make it where you have over %50 advantage?
Say only 10 possible flops
flop:
1 95%
2 85%
3 25%
4 25%
5 25%
6 25%
7 20%
8 15%
9 10%
10 5%
avg = %33

[/ QUOTE ]

No, No. Hero's question is simple.

Villian makes a pot raise of your PF call. Supposing villain pushes NO MATTER WHAT on the flop, and hero gets to decide whether to call or not, how deep do stacks have to be for the preflop call to be profitable for hero, given Villain's hand range?

-Todd
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  #6  
Old 05-31-2005, 04:02 PM
joel2006 joel2006 is offline
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Posts: 4
Default Re: I\'m beat but I can outplay him postflop... or can I

It seems to me that you're asking the wrong question, the size of the raise relative to the stacks isn't relevant if donkey is going all-in on the flop no matter what. In this case, given the hand range you listed his stack must be at least twice yours for you to break even. And if he is going all-in no matter what then you can't outplay him postflop. because there are no plays for you to make, you can only call.
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