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  #1  
Old 12-29-2005, 10:23 PM
ryanghall ryanghall is offline
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Default Quick math question

2/4 blinds.

Folded to you in SB w/ K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB has $27. He's average. I have a very tight image.

Is it +EV to push? If not, is it so close that it's worth it for image?

Ryan
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  #2  
Old 12-29-2005, 10:25 PM
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Default Re: Quick math question

wellhow often do u think he'll fold? and how often do u think hell call w./ a worse hand?
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  #3  
Old 12-29-2005, 10:27 PM
ryanghall ryanghall is offline
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Default Re: Quick math question

That's what I'm asking the mathies to figure out.
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Old 12-30-2005, 12:38 AM
ryanghall ryanghall is offline
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Default Re: Quick math question

OK not getting any help here.

Let's say, just for fun, that he calls with any Ace, any 2 face, any pair.

Is the push right or neutral then?

Ryan
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Old 12-30-2005, 12:45 AM
DJ Sensei DJ Sensei is offline
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Default Re: Quick math question

Well, i threw it in SNG powertools with that calling range... Not sure if its accurate for ring game situations, but it gave your push as +.5% EV against that calling range. Pretty close to neutral.
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  #6  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:53 AM
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Default Re: Quick math question

Ask this same question in probabilities?
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  #7  
Old 12-30-2005, 01:55 AM
Isura Isura is offline
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Default Re: Quick math question

Easy push.
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  #8  
Old 12-30-2005, 02:10 AM
Isura Isura is offline
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Default Re: Quick math question

[ QUOTE ]
OK not getting any help here.

Let's say, just for fun, that he calls with any Ace, any 2 face, any pair.

Is the push right or neutral then?

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

Any ace, any paint (I included tens), any pair is about 28% of hands.

100-28 = 72% of time he folds.

fold EV = $6 * .72

K3s is about %38 against that range.
call and we lose $29 * .62
calll and we win $33 * .38

EV = ($6 * .72) + ($33 * .28 * .38) - ($29 * .28 * .62) = 4.32 + 3.51 - 5.03 = +$2.80.

The play has an EV of + $2.80.
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