My Bustout Hand--Oh The Humanity!!

[Bill Murphy]

[ QUOTE ]
I figure his most likely hands are TT, 99, 66, AA, or QJ. Based on the way the hand played out, I have to make QJ at best 50% , so I have a clear call.

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Yeah, he can't have AK cuz you got the Kc. Howeverrrrrrr, w/a set seems he woulda re-pushed on the flop and w/AA seems he'd've pushed pre-flop or certainly on flop. AcQc can't see how he pushes on turn.

Kinda the old Sherlock Holmes deal: "When you've eliminated all the impossible, no matter how improbable it seems that...etc" Esp. considering the guy was a weak erratic player. There've been a number of articles written about hands like this, one by Michael Konik(although he played his hand very poorly and it was only AK).

But again, it'd've been one of the greatest laydowns ever. What if you'd had 130K left instead of 30? 230K?

[Smoothcall]

Hey Rushmore. Sorry to hear that. Thats a tough way to go out.

But to discuu the hand you said you made it 15k on the flop. Does that mean you called the 6 and raised 9k? Or called the 6 and raised 15k? Sound like you raised 9k. I don't think thats enough of a raise to push a flush draw out. Even 15k might not be enough as there is about 23k in the pot and he has to call only 15k. And if he hits it he may double through. But 9k isnt even close to enough. I think you shoulda just moved all in on the flop. If he flopped a set more power to him. But there is too much in there to play around with it and give draws a good price. And if he had AA i think he moves all in preflop. Although not impossible if he's playing the trap game. But most would come back over and all in preflop with AA.

I don't think you reraised enough preflop either. Granted if you knew he had that hand you want him to play. But you are giving him a decent price to call a raise preflop. He's hoping you have Ak or something.

I don't mean to insult your play here just saying it looks like you were underbetting your hand throughout this hand.

It sucks going out of the main event. I played it a few years ago and i was sick when i got knocked out too. I had Ak of diamonds flop came k rag rag with 2 diamonds. Pretty sweet huh? Well my opponent had KK in the hole so not very sweet. If i make a diamond i would been with the chip leaders instead i was on the rail. I felt some pressure playing it too. And played very tight. Except for this loose call i made.

Good luck next year!

[Smoothcall]

If you only called 6k and raised 9k which it loks like you wrote. He only has to call 9k to win 33k pus what he might win from you after possibly. If he just had a flush draw and not even count the ace he would be getting a great price. Unless you raised more than the way it sounded what you did his call is easy.

[Myrtle]

First of all, my sympathies for the bust out in this manner....You’ve got to be somewhat shell-shocked and feeling pretty down.....it hurts.....been there.

As far as the hand goes................

[ QUOTE ]
Table generally trying to play solid. Nobody too dangerous.

9 seat is the weakest player at the table. He seems a little lost, betting strange amounts, calling a lot, etc., but somehow he has 51K in chips, just like me (FORESHADOWING ALERT).

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Your ‘read’ here might be the most important thing. Sounds to me as if you’ve got him nailed as someone who’s still there based upon his somewhat weak/loose play. If so, these guys are always a problem, it’s damned hard to put them on a hand with any kind of authority.

In any case, knowing all the facts, here’s what I think........

Although I probably would have limped with his hand UTG, I really don’t have a huge problem with his T2200 raise. He makes a pot sized raise from UTG with a suited QJ. Why does he do this? What’s HIS ‘read’ on the rest of the table? What are the other stack sizes? You say the table is ‘generally solid’......

After his raise of T2200, there is now T4300 in the pot.

I take it that you’re in MP with your KK? You call his T2200 and raise him T3200 making the pot T9700? Is this correct? He needs to put in T3200 to call......T9700/T3200...just about 3:1. So, being last to act, he calls you H/U, for less than 10% of his stack with a speculative drawing hand.

One could say that your pf rr was too small, but, you still had players to act behind you, so if it is an error, I don’t think it’s a big one.

With the no Ace flop, he bets about half of the pot. Hmmm.........ok, of the range of hands that you stated that you put him, you’re worried about 4 of ‘em...AA, TT, 99, 66. I think that I would have discounted AA, as I believe he would have come back at you pf, had he had them. So, now it’s down to ‘Did he get lucky and flop a set’?

The A didn’t flop, and you’ve got a strong overpair to the board, which is also both flush and straight coordinated. I can’t put him on flopping a straight to that board, but both the flush & straight draws do concern me.

Decision time in the valley for Rushmore............You’ve got a strong hand, and you want to get paid off vs. you don’t want this guy drawing out on you. I think that you have to takes your edge here and play it strong. There’s now T18,900 in the pot after his bet.......and you’ve got about T46,000 left? I’d re-raise him around T19K or T20K. It totally distorts any drawing odds that he has, and if he does call, he’s made a major mistake. If he has the set, he’ll come over the top at you, and you can still let the hand go.....

Your T15K rr makes the pot T33,900, and he has to put in T9K.....T34/T9 = 3.77 and he has 15 outs. Looks like you priced him into the pot?

Of course, the freaking K comes, giving you your set, and now it’s very hard for you to let it go, as the only hand that has you beat is what he had.

So, I think the key here is your read............. Will he let the hand go if you pop him HARD on the flop?

[transmitt]

Only a Helmuthian laydown keeps you alive after the K hits. His play post flop is fine, but unfortunately he called the raise pre-flop when he shouldn't have. That is a pretty brutal final hand.

[West]

Wow, I vote this for @sshole post of the year.

Rushmore, sorry to hear you went out in such a tough way.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise to 15K, resolved to muck to an allin reraise, as this guy would never reraise me if I wasn't beat here. This amount makes drawing to AcQc incorrect, and I still feel good about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's barely a minraise. You raised a 6K bet to 15K or you raised it to 21K and made it 15K more?

[IgorSmiles]

Tough break Rush. I dont think you played it all that bad, although the preflop reraise couldve been a bit more.

That said, his early raise and call isnt that bad at a table full of tighties. He may steal the blinds, and he has an easy fold if he misses the flop and a chance to win a big pot if he hits.

[IgorSmiles]

He also sets the price for seeing a flop. Would you have reraised with a pair of 10s there? Probably not, so he slows down the rest of the table by UTG raising with a good drawing hand. He may get a few callers and build a nice pot.

[primetime32]

Well played rushmore. All the monday morning QB's would be KILLING you if you had laid down the hand after hitting your trips, when the TV shows the other guy with anything but the one hand that beats you.

And even if he had you beat, you could have paired the board. not something you can count on, but at least gives you gives you a shot if he does have the nuts.

Whether your raises were large enough, from the sound of things this guy may have called a larger raise. Perhaps even an all in. He had the flush draw and straight draw. He probably wasnt too far behind you after the flop, even if he had you on AA or KK.

This is one of those "nothing you can do" situations. congrats on doing as well as you did!