Wait, but... wha... huh? Hellmuth knowledge. - Page 4

Sqred · #31 12-18-2004, 07:22 PM

He is quickly losing his mind. The suckouts have taken there toll and he will be a shell of his former self for years to come.

Fear has no place in a Tournament structure, not if you want to win. Maybe he just wants to hang around long enough to make the TV table and get some more false recognition.

You can't be so afraid of going broke that you pass up profitable situations. QQ used to be a small pair, compared to what some people are shoving with nowadays, it's the mortal nuts.

The really funny thing is that he feels the need to make the claim that he read his opponent right and still felt good about the fold. HaHaHaHa. Don't make me laugh, you figured you had a chance at getting beat and you didnt want to go home just yet. Congratulations, you got to stay a little longer.

FJM

Phoenix1010 · #32 12-18-2004, 10:04 PM

I don't think anyone has countered anything that I said in my second post. The answers seem to center around the "folding a 4 to 1 preflop advantage is NEVER EVER ok" theory, even though I presented hypothetical situations where it is indeed plausible. Again, if Phil Hellmuth is at the weakest table in the WSOP championship event and folds pocket queens on the very first hand with 10,000 chips and blinds at 25/50 against a weak player who he knows for a fact has pocket 7's and has just gone all-in for his own 10,000, I do not blame him. I also will forego a 20% risk of ruin if I feel I have all the time in the world exploit larger advantages post-flop while risking smaller percentages of my stack. If anyone has a counter-argument for anything I said in my post, that doesn't include absolutist mandates that disregard surrounding situations, I'm listening. No one even brought up that I used "omnipotent" instead of "omniscient." Oops.

By the way, thanks for bringing up the possibility that he was just trying to save face. Come to think of it, I believe that is by far the most likely explanation. I took what he said at face value, and we all know that's just silly when you're dealing with poker players, especially celebrity poker players. I find it difficult to rationalize his posting this hand in his hand of the week article, since I think if he thought he had made a collosal mistake, he'd probably just leave it out. Although, I have no idea what goes through his head on public relations issues.

Regards, Steve

JARID · #33 12-18-2004, 10:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, thanks for bringing up the possibility that he was just trying to save face. Come to think of it, I believe that is by far the most likely explanation. I took what he said at face value, and we all know that's just silly when you're dealing with poker players, especially celebrity poker players. I find it difficult to rationalize his posting this hand in his hand of the week article, since I think if he thought he had made a collosal mistake, he'd probably just leave it out. Although, I have no idea what goes through his head on public relations issues.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thats what he is counting on. That he is speaking to an audience that doesn't know any better. That his audience will say "wow, Phil is so good, he doesn't need a 4-1 edge because he can "look into peoples souls", ooohhh maybe someday I can be that good." Not that you buy-in to all that, its just that many do. Well, at least I think.

Regards,
Jarid

That guy · #34 12-18-2004, 11:28 PM

Phoenix,

I think I can speak for all of twoplustwo in saying; whenever you pass up a known 4-1 advantage, you are making a serious poker mistake.

There are good reasons to fold QQ early in a tournament vs an All-In... but facing 77 is not one of them.

There are hundreds of pros willing to expoit edges much smaller than 4-1... if others are being aggressive with 3-2 edges and you are laying down 4-1 edges, you are being outplayed -- there is no way to rationalize this.

Hellmuth exits lots of tournaments out of the money so it is not like all that looking into the soul stuff is any better than just taking your swings with the occassional 2.5-1 all-in...

Jesse Richman · #35 12-20-2004, 04:50 AM

I think that from now on, anytime someone doesn't understand what David and Mason mean by "exploitable strategy," we should refer them to this beauty.

Can you say "all in with any two"?

zaxx19 · #36 12-20-2004, 06:19 AM

Im a pretty tight player early on but for example will never EVER throw AA or KK early on in a MTT. Hands like AK and QQ are very throwable IMHO. If he really had him on an underair this was a horrible fold. Otherwise...it isnt as bad as you guys are making out. QQ is a grewat hand and I almost never get moved off it but there are times I just muck it myself.

THIS IS INCORRECT:

Fear has no place in a Tournament structure, not if you want to win

Just absolutely not true IMHO. There are plaenty of spots where you SHOULD BE afraid of gambling and getting busted when you dont need the chips.

otnemem · #37 12-20-2004, 09:35 AM

I'm going to say this one more time:

Folding queens is NOT a bad move in many situations. It's not even that bad when you put your opponent on a smaller pair, because reads can always be wrong. Saying he was still glad after seeing the sevens, SPECIFICALLY BECAUSE HIS OPPONENT COULD HAVE HIT A SEVEN to send him packing is ridiculous. Does that mean he'd fold aces to a pre-flop all-in, and then be perfectly glad when his opponent shows twos, because his opponent could've hit a runner runner straight to bust him? It just doesn't make sense.

BarronVangorToth · #38 12-20-2004, 10:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Of course you can. What do you think his lifetime earn is in buyins won per tournament entered?

[/ QUOTE ]

This has always been a statistic I'd love to hear. Sure, it's interesting to hear that Pro X won Y millions in Z year, it would be MORE interesting, I think, to see this:

Player X - tournament buy-ins $1.3 million - tournament wins - $1.2 million

Player A - tournament buy-ins $50,000 - tournament wins $700,000

If you just know the wins ... you'd think X > A, but when you see the buy-ins, you'd have to respect the results for A > X.

You'd think it wouldn't be that hard to do, either, as ALL of these tournaments every weekend are listed somewhere...

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

Kaz The Original · #39 12-20-2004, 08:43 PM

You guys are utter idiots.

He did not fold because he could have gone out with his 4.5:1 edge. He folded because it wasn't worth it to risk it that early.

His comment about 7's was not a strategical statement, merely a soothing thought to calm the burn which always comes from a bad laydown.

zaxx19 · #40 12-20-2004, 11:42 PM

I agree kinda like when he acted like Duke's 2 pair raise bothered him. He even basically told her he knew she had 2 pair..

The guy is still a top 25 player. He is still a factor. And he still has 9 bracelets. Does he need to loosen up a little bc of the influx of skilled players...probably. Will he....probably.