AlKatraz - securing villains or can't escape?

[DeeJ]

well I called him a fish - and he was a fish at 50% VPIP - but I didn't think he was a big enough fish of the kind to pay 2 BB for a gutshot. And I was more worried about what button was up to.

edit: I'll post some results later.

[DcifrThs]

turn is crucial here imo.

you have a very vulnerable hand w/ 1 card to come, calling gives the fish 9:1. either bet out and give the fish 8:1 or c'r and lay him 5:1. if the button 3 bets you can either call down or fold it right there. looks like he has a set ifhe 3bets b/c thats the only rational hand (other than a straight) that will do it...either way your 2pr outs are no good.

i dont like checking and calling though b/c you have no control of betting and dont have any clue where you're at and you give up value if the fish WILL call 2bbs...AND fish may raise the button out with a hand worse than yours (Kworse kicker) AND you cal fold to the buttons 3bet if you bet fish raises and he reraises.

yea i like betting out. betting river if called, either call down or fold if UTG folds and butto raised...id probably fold more than id call b/c its pretty clear you have the K...and maybe id call down for that reason.

Barron

[DeeJ]

Thanks Barron.

Button shows 44 and HHIG. Fish had K5o.

The problem with check-calling as I did is you never know where you are, as you said. But taggy rocks don't limp on the button with a big variety of hands, and those that they do are often small pairs. So I played scared poker and basically took a way ahead/way behind view.

I'd pretty much ruled out A3 b/c he'd likely raise that pf. So he either had a mid suited connector like 78/89/9T/TJ but as you get into the face cards they are more raises than limps. In fact he could actually raise with 78 for all I knew (not enough hands).

I figured I'd need to put 2 bets in on the turn if Button had a set (same, if less likely, a straight) to find out, and I could probably get to the river for the same 2 bets in any case on the possibility Button was firing barrels with 78/55/89. The problem with that line of thinking is that Button probably knows that fish is a fish and won't be firing on the river (if it's a likely overcard) with a small pair or missed draw if there are 2 overcards to his hand.

Fish could have hit his 5 but still lost to Button's trips, but fish would actually hit his 8 outs 1/6 of the time as he had an oesd. So (results oriented reasoning) check-raising would be good against fish but suck against Button.... I'm a poor third despite having fish "dominated"! Given that I was drawing near dead after the flop the whole hand sucked. Like being stuck in Alcatraz, actually.

don't like the whole thing much [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] as I can't see how I could lose less in this scenario and I'm not sure Button's range of hands wins me any more if I bet into my TPTK K on the turn and he folds a worse hand. He sure isn't folding a better hand.